Nevada-BYU preview

BYU's Offense vs. Nevada's Defense
With the QB situation decided, we should see a more traditional BYU pass-first offense.  Although, the running game has been the only thing BYU has done decently well this season.  With Heaps' ability to throw the deep ball, it should help open up the running game a bit more even.  Given his youth and inexperience, Nevada will probably blitz him a little more, which could also help open up the running game.
The offense still needs a third down threat, but the good news is they are facing one of the worst 3rd-down defenses in the country (besides their own...).  It's also a pretty bad defense in general.  It's weakness on weakness.  While typically, I don't like a freshman QB in third down situations, I think BYU will be in a third and short more than it has been the past two weeks which opens up the playbook.
I anticipate seeing Jacobson, Kariya, and at least one TE having big games against Nevada.  Running Kariya out of the shotgun formation could be a big opportunity for BYU against the smaller front 7 of Nevada.  Spread out a smaller defense and then run over them.  BYU will need that to open up the passing game and take some pressure off of Heaps.  It also couldn't hurt to send Jacobson deep (and outside) against this defense.
Nevada's defense is its weakness, BYU will NEED to get their offense going to win this game.

BYU's Defense vs. Nevada's Offense
Opponents of BYU have gashed them for rushing yardage all over the place.  They "held" Washington to 128 yards, but they averaged over 4 yards per carry.  Take out the bad punt snap though, and it was 167 yards and 5.5 yards/carry.  Air Force ran the option all day long over them.  Florida State busted an 83-yard run against them, amongst some other big rushes.  BYU's defense has given up 7 RUSHING plays over 20 yards in 3 games, which is not good.
Nevada runs a lot of option looks, though not the traditional triple option.  I would anticipate the defense will play closer attention this week than they obviously did in preparation for Air Force.  It hasn't been the mobility of the QBs that has killed them, it's been the RBs.  If they can continue that and shutdown Kaepernick running the ball, it will certainly slow down Nevada's offense.  It's his running ability that opens up RB Vai Taua and the passing game, so if they can contain Kapernick, they can contain the 50-point scoring Nevada offense.  If they can't, watch out.
Kaepernick has been throwing the ball well too.  He has spread the ball around quite a bit, but loves his 6'5" TE Virgil Green and 6'2" WR Rishard Matthews.  When Nevada needed a play against Cal, they looked to Rishard Matthews through the air.  However, Tray Session has been the go-to guy inside the 20.  BYU's secondary has looked OK in coverage, but the LBs will need to tighten it up, especially having to play the option and the option-fake.  That's where TE Virgil Green gets a lot of his work done is in the play-action, which holds the LBs and he releases right behind them.
There's a lot of weapons to deal with for BYU's porous defense.  They will need a Poppinga-like effort this week to get things done.

Special Teams:
Nevada hasn't given up a punt return yet: a couple of fair catches, a couple out-of-bounds, and a couple of touchbacks in 6 punts.  They are 88th in the country in kickoff return defense, but their special teams are probably so exhausted from sprinting down the field 10 times a game...
BYU continues to lead the country in kickoff return defense.  We all know the punting situation there: it either goes 50 yards with no return or 2 yards with no return.
As far as returns go, BYU has pretty much exclusively had O'Neill Chambers returning kicks.  So who knows what we will see from them this week.  Nevada is averaging 11 yards/punt return and 25/kickoff return, a weakness of BYU.  Given how crucial field position could be to this game, BYU will need to step up, because Nevada has an edge in this department, and has been more consistent too.

Overview:
Simply put, BYU has to have this game.  They probably recognize that and will have prepared, and will play, with an increased sense of urgency.  There is no longer a QB controversy, which will help the offense.  Anything that helps the offense helps the defense.  But there is certainly a long way to go.  Nevada's weak defense could be just what BYU needs this week after facing a stingy Air Force team and a big, fast, athletic Florida State defense.
This is one of those games that Nevada should win.  But Vegas puts the spread at only 4, so they must know something the average outsider doesn't.
I believe that this game will, in fact, be the turning point for BYU.  They right the ship.  Nevada put up 52 on Cal last weekend, but BYU has one advantage over Cal: they are taking Nevada seriously.
The defense makes stops.  The offense converts on third down.  Stephenson pins Nevada deep.  Whoever steps in for Chambers on kick returns takes advantage of his opportunity.  Everything goes well for BYU.

OK, so I'm not THAT optimistic, but I do believe they make crucial plays in crucial situations, enough to win this football game and save their season.  Heaps is now THE guy, and that will help the whole team out.  The defense must follow suit and show some pride in pushing Nevada's offense back, or at least making them earn it.  Special teams has got to start controlling the field position again, and be consistent in doing so.  BYU 34, Nevada 24.