BYU at Air Force Preview

BYU begins its final MWC tour in Colorado Springs against the Air Force Academy, Saturday at 2pm Mountain, on Versus (or VersusHD where available).

If there ever was a year for Troy Calhoun to beat Bronco Mendenhall, this is it, and not just because this may be the last year to do it.  Air Force has a good defense.  They have experience at the skill positions on offense.  I think people are overhyping the "early in the season" factor.  Yes, it's better to play the Falcons later in the year when they're worn down, but playing them early in the year, you get them before their offense has really been clicking.  If anything, better in September than October, though November is certainly best of all...

The real question is: does there have to be a year?  In 2007, Air Force came into a late-September matchup against BYU with a chance to win.  They were the team that was going to challenge BYU for the MWC title.  They were going to be the ones to upset BYU in Provo.  They had an extra two days of preparation after a Thursday night game the prior week.  They had already knocked off Utah on the road and beaten TCU in OT and many "experts" predicted the same thing with the other big name in the MWC (this was before the whole Big Three nonsense).  BYU was breaking in a new QB after John Beck, new TEs after Harline and Coats, and a new RB after Curtis Brown.  It was supposed to be close.  Instead, it was over at halftime.  BYU held Air Force to 231 yards and 6 points for the game.  Harvey Unga ran for 111 yards.  Max Hall threw for 293.  Pitta had 5 catches for 114 yards.  OK, enough history.  Just saying: it doesn't ever have to happen.

But it certainly could happen.  One of the big concerns with a young team is complacency.  This defense was good enough to keep Jake Locker from breaking loose, so why should Tim Jefferson be any problem?  Washington is much bigger, faster, stronger than Air Force, so we should be fine.  That's the mindset that can creep in: thinking you are better than you are.  However, I don't see that with this bunch: there were too many mistakes made last game.  Bronco has drilled it into their heads how difficult the option can be to defend.

A few weeks ago, I predicted that BYU's defense will ultimately decide this game.  I believe that is as true today as it was when I first said it.  BYU's offensive size, skill, and spread formation SHOULD put up anywhere between 24 and 38 points against the Air Force Falcons, regardless of which QB plays.  Obviously an abysmal performance by a QB could lessen that point total, but if one is ineffective, the other one can pick up the slack and the playing time.  The real question is, on the road, early in the year, with a talented and experienced QB on the other side, can the BYU defense hold the Falcons to less than 24?  The more of a shootout it becomes, the better the chances for Air Force.

BYU's O vs. Air Force's D
BYU has size over Air Force's defense.  They spread Air Force out and find creases.  The only thing different about this year's BYU offense than the previous 5 years is the additional running threat with Riley Nelson.  I feel like BYU should be able to sustain their offensive prowess over the Academy.  Last year, Air Force had the best pass defense in the country, statistically speaking, but BYU threw for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns, and scored 38 points.  I don't anticipate we'll see quite that showing tomorrow from BYU, but I think BYU should put across 3 or 4 TDs and 2 or 3 FGs.

BYU's D vs. Air Force's O
Again, size is in BYU's favor, but that's pretty typical at the Academy.  It is all about discipline, angles, smarts against Air Force.  Steven Thomas did well at FS, as did the LBs, last game as far as alignment is concerned.  But they will be tested in a lot of different ways this week.  The veterans of the defense will have to step up and contain the option.  It all starts with Jared Tew, the FB: if he averages less than 3 yards/carry, it makes it easier on the outside with the wings and the QB.  If you can't stop the FB, you can't stop the option.  It all starts with the defensive line.  If they play well and force the Falcons outside, then we'll see Pendleton and Rich with 10 tackles each.

I believe the defense plays well enough to win.  I think we'll see something around a 31-20 score, in favor of BYU.  If Air Force gets it going early and gets 14-17 points by halftime, BYU is in trouble.  If they are sitting around 7 to 10, BYU fans can watch a little less nervously.

This is definitely one of the games I look forward to the most in the MWC season.  I will miss it when BYU becomes independent.  I am sad that it came so early this year, it just feels more like an October game to me.  BYU has dominated the win column in the series, but there have been some good, close, hard-fought games over the years.  I expect a similar result today: good game, anyone's game going into the fourth quarter, but BYU pulls it out, 31-20.