My boss asked me this morning when I walked in: does BYU have any chance tomorrow? I replied: the only thing I know for sure is that the score starts 0-0, and anything can happen from there. Often times, a rebuilding team will travel on the road to a superior opponent as a double-digit underdog. Everybody, even Gameday, completely writes off the rebuilding, but talented, team. And then they go in and lay a beatdown on their opponent. I've just never thought of BYU as a team like that, mostly because I've never seen them do that. They have had a tough enough time winning those games when they aren't the ones rebuilding.
The biggest weakness on defense for Florida State is obviously their secondary. They got torched for nearly 400 passing yards and 47 points against Oklahoma. However, that was Landry Jones, Ryan Broyles, Cameron Kenney, and DeMarco Murray, not Riley Nelson, McKay Jacobson, O'Neill Chambers, and JJ DiLuigi. That was in front of 90,000 fans cheering against FSU, not 70,000 tomahawk-chopping fans. BYU's WRs and TEs have not shown enough to think that they'll be able to put up a 300-yard performance, which is almost a minimum to have any chance for success in this game. Riley Nelson certainly hasn't looked capable of throwing for 300 yards, unless Florida State leaves DiLuigi wide open over the middle of the field a couple of times.
The front 7 for Florida State has looked very good to this point. They held Oklahoma to less than 2.5 yards per carry. They are big, strong, fast, and athletic, especially those DEs. The linebackers are very active in the run game, while, at the same time, more than capable of covering BYU's WRs and TEs one-on-one. I am curious to see HOW BYU plans to attack this defense. One thing I can almost certainly guarantee is that we'll see Brian Kariya a lot more this game for blocking purposes.
Christian Ponder was amazingly efficient in Provo last season. He completed 80% of his passes for nearly 200 yards and rushed for about 7 yards/carry, including several crucial third down plays. The running game, in general, was pretty wide open for FSU against BYU's experienced front 7 last year. I think the DL this year is more suited to handle FSU's run game than last year's undersized, underaggressive group was. The WRs won't be quite as good in the aggregate as last year's FSU team took to Provo, but it has size and speed, the likes of which BYU does not see very often.
Honestly, I think that FSU and Washington compare fairly well. Big, strong-armed, mobile QBs, several stud receivers and backs (though FSU is deeper), very active LBs, and a very porous secondary. Florida State has better offensive and defensive lines. BYU eked one out at home against the lesser of the two teams. How they will go on the road and do it against the better of the two is something I can't really fathom right now. Perhaps Florida State will be overconfident after the beatdown they laid on last year's better, more experienced BYU team on the road.
The one thing this BYU team has over last year's BYU team going into the FSU game is humility. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be enough to pull this one off. So far I am 0-2 on picking BYU games, and I hope I am 0-3. Florida State 38, BYU 24.
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