Thursday Thoughts, Week Four

Poppinga, Anyone?
BYU has scored 14 and 10 points in two consecutive blowout losses.  I remember back in the Crowton days, a guy by the name of Brady Poppinga roamed the sidelines (and the opponent's backfield).  After a defeat in Laramie, 13-10, Brady was quoted after the game, "this loss is on our defense.  Our offense scored 10 points, that should be more than enough to win."  I don't know if he was referring to 10 points in general, or 10 points against Wyoming, but BYU sure needs another guy with that kind of attitude to step up.

Conference Play Begins
While the Big Ten is still playing opponents the magnitude of Ball State, Bowling Green, FCS UNC (Northern Colorado-Greeley), Toledo, FCS Austin Peay, Eastern Michigan, and Temple (all at home for the third time in 4 games), it's nice that conference play has started elsewhere to give us a few good matchups.  I can't wait until we can see FCS teams fall from the "Top 25 Overview" completely in a few weeks.  Thank goodness for the SEC (and ACC) this weekend, or else we'd have a bunch of non-conference mismatches to sit through again this weekend.
Each season, I become a bigger proponent of trimming the fat, going down to 80 teams, 8 10-team conferences, no FCS opponents allowed, an 11-game schedule with a single bye week (9 conference games and 2 non-conference, though I don't oppose 12 games), and a 16-team playoff with the top 2 teams in each conference, with all other .500 or better teams having an opportunity to play in bowl games...I know I'm a dreamer, but it'd be a lot better than Austin Peay at Wisconsin in late September...or the inevitable argument that "team X should have been in the National Championship Game because they played one less crappy opponent than team Y..."  I know a playoff is coming.  I just wish it was accompanied by my dream scenario...

AlmostCompetitiveConference-Big lEast Showdown
Which of these BCS conferences sucks worse?  Well, judgment weekend has arrived.  Both conferences have whittled down to a single ranked team in each, with neither conference having anyone in the top 18.  There are two head-to-head matchups, both hosted by Big East underdogs: Miami at Pittsburgh on Thursday night and North Carolina at Rutgers.  Duke has a chance to not embarrass itself and the ACC by beating Army at home.  The Big East sends its only serious hope to Baton Rouge to face #15 LSU on the Bayou.  Two-time defending champion Cincinatti hosts Oklahoma in the Sooners' first road game of the season.  UConn, Syracuse, and South Florida simply need to not lose to save face.  These conferences continue to underperform, compared to their BCS brethren.  Will either or both step up?  Either way, the WAC and the MWC are currently flexing their muscles at the top of the rankings.  The middle of those conferences may be better, but if TWO non-BCS conferences have better shots at a national title than two BCS conferences, then they're in trouble.  Another reason to dump the current BCS format...why should an unranked, 3-loss Big East champ get an automatic bid when the others are fighting tooth and nail to get a seat.

The Season of Wide Open Races
I don't remember a season when so many conference titles were literally wide open.  No one can ever definitively say who will win the SEC or Big XII at the start of the season.  Usually the Big Ten has a clear favorite (Ohio State).  The Pac 10 was the Pac 1 for nearly a decade.  This season, though, the WAC is the only foregone conclusion with Boise State (though some folks think Nevada and Fresno State might have something to say about it, I don't, for one reason: depth, Boise State's got it, others don't), with the MWC and TCU pretty close behind.  I'm not willing to call Utah in or out of the race just yet, they just simply haven't played a schedule that tells us anything about them yet.  Air Force presents a formidable challenge to Utah's chances (and perhaps BYU might be able, after another 9 games, to present a challenge), but Utah is the only team preventing TCU from going winning the conference.
The Big Ten has 2-6 teams that could win it, if you count Penn State, Michigan State, and Iowa, which some experts do (I don't, if you couldn't catch the sarcasm there, and Michigan is a long shot too).  It's probably going to be Wisconsin or Ohio State (they play at Camp Randall on October 16th, Wisconsin needs to win to have any chance, where Ohio State could absorb a loss).  The SEC will probably boil down to Florida or Alabama again, but Arkansas, Auburn, and South Carolina have their best teams in recent memory.  LSU won't win it, but could always play spoiler for somebody else.  The ACC is as mediocre as I ever remember from them, top-to-bottom, and, in that scenario, it's completely up for grabs.  The Big East has definitely taken ANOTHER step back this season, with West Virginia the ONLY team that could really separate itself from the rest of the group, and their likelihood for going undefeated isn't likely traveling to UConn and Pitt.
The Big XII has Nebraska, and no others from the North, and Texas and Oklahoma.  Nebraska has the easiest road: all they have to do is win the Big XII Title Game, because they will be in it whether they beat Texas at home or not.  Texas will either have to beat Oklahoma at a neutral site, or Nebraska on the road, and then beat Nebraska at a neutral site.  While OU will have to beat both Texas and Nebraska at neutral sites.  None of those are easy tasks: one of them will definitely do it, but everyone disagrees on which one.  The Pac 10 sure looks like Oregon, but realistically, the only teams that have zero chance to win it are UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, and Washington State.  Stanford could, USC could (and really screw the conference over since they can't go to the Rose Bowl...), Arizona might, Oregon State almost did it last year, and if Cal survives a trip to the Arizona desert this weekend and at USC in mid-October, they get Oregon and Stanford at home and could win it too.
Conference USA has two potential champs in the East in Southern Miss and East Carolina, plus a few potentials in the West in Houston, SMU, and UTEP.  This was supposed to be Temple's year in the MAC, and maybe it is, but they nearly lost to FCS Villanova and eked by Central Michigan at home in a rebuilding year for them.  The Sun Belt only has four teams that can't win it.  The rest all could.
I love the open races.  I hope someone dethrones Ohio State and busts through the Florida-Bama stronghold.  The fact is: hope still springs eternal for a lot of teams hoping for conference titles.