Pitt at Utah Prediction

One thing I can tell you about this Utah team: they have the swagger of Urban's 2004 team that dominated Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl.  However, no matter how they carry themselves: they are not the 2004 Utah Utes.  They were, simply put, the best non-BCS team of the BCS era to date.  Now...to the game.  Since I already broke down Utah in a previous post (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/08/look-at-utah.html), I'll focus on Pitt.

Dion Lewis is one of the great running backs in college football, but will he suffer a sophomore slump?  I fully expect the Utes to stack the box against the run, if they can (starting a true freshman at SS might complicate that a little bit, since it's usually the SS as the 8th man in the box...also, a lot of new LBs that would have to recover quickly in pass coverage could open up the passing game too much).  If they can contain Dion Lewis, they should win this game.  They will have to trust their mostly new secondary against Pitt's brand-spanking new QB Tino Sunseri.  He does have 1,000-yard receiver Jon Williams back, and I'm sure he'll be staring him down (could lead to turnovers?).  With this being the first game of the season, at altitude, can Lewis and Williams be effective for four quarters?  Not very likely.  Can they be effective enough through 3 quarters to make the fourth quarter not matter?  That is the question that decides the game.

Defensively, Pitt returns a pretty experienced team, including playmaker Greg Romeus at defensive end.  He has been a bit nicked up, so even if he's 100% healthy, he's not 100% conditioned.  Again, at altitude, can he be effective for 4 quarters?  Anyway, this was a stout D last year, ranking in the top 25 in most defensive categories, and I anticipate them being able to make some stops again tonight against sophomore QB Jordan Wynn.

Pitt will be sound in the kicking game as well.  They return an 80% accurate senior place kicker, who also handles the punt duties, a la Louie Sakoda.

24 points is probably the magic number for Utah tonight, or for Pitt if they can get there first.  The one "intangible" for this game: Utah on the big stage, with time to prepare.  They NEVER disappoint on the big stage, with an extra week (or 8 months) to get ready.

If Utah shuts down Dion Lewis, they win big.  If the Panthers can shut down the Utes' two-headed monster rushing attack, they could win big.  If both running games are shut down, I would expect Jordan Wynn to make more plays than Tino.

I believe that Utah will win this one, 24-17.  If it is a close game, I fully anticipate Utah to pull it out in the end.  Pitt's best chance is to get out early and remind Utah that they aren't a BCS team.  Yet.  However, Pitt would probably need to score 3 TDs in the first half to do that and I don't anticipate that happening on the road, at altitude, with a sophomore, first-time-starting QB.