Thursday Thoughts, Week Three

Thursday Night Primetime:
Remember when you were pumped to go home and watch the Thursday night matchup on ESPN?  Cincinnati at NC State just doesn't do that for me.  Last week it was Auburn-Mississippi State, which was a great game, but I didn't wait all day with anticipation.  The opening ESPN game of the season was Southern Mississippi, a very good non-BCS program, at perennialy overrated, but unranked, South Carolina.  We wait all summer for that first Thursday night game, and Versus delivered a better opening matchup (and game) than ESPN.  Better games are on the way, but it will be a month into the season before we get a matchup that might be exciting (Miami at Pittsburgh).  Here's hoping for a BYU-Oregon State opener next year!  It's currently scheduled for the first Saturday of the season, maybe ESPN can work with that: get BYU's first game as an independent in prime-time on Thursday night...

Matchups to Watch this Weekend:
Right out of the gates Saturday morning, 10am Mountain, we get Arkansas at Georgia.  This game shows how huge home-field can be.  Arkansas is expected to put up huge points all season.  Georgia looked anemic at South Carolina last week, scoring only 6 points.  Yet the Bulldogs are the favorites in this game.  Go figure.
Maryland at West Virginia, Texas at Texas Tech (ABC, 6pm Mountain), and Iowa at Arizona (ESPN, 8:30pm Mountain) are also games to look forward to.  Indeed, those three will probably be a lot better than the over-hyped, big-in-name-only matchups from last week's "Monster Saturday."

Upset Alert:
Nebraska at Washington.  It is put up or shut up time for Jake Locker.  They rebounded well against Syracuse at home, but that was not Nebraska.
I think Nebraska's near-win over Texas in the Big XII Title Game last year is carrying over into far too much hype over this year's Cornhuskers.  They are still a little uncertain at QB and eventually someone will force them to pass.  They gave up 10 points to Western Kentucky and 17 to Idaho, both at home.  How will they do on the road against a much more formidable offensive opponent?  I wouldn't bet on Washington, but Nebraska needs to prove to me that it's worth the hype.  This is one of VERY FEW chances to do that.  For all the crap non-BCS schools like Boise State and TCU take for their schedules, Nebraska only has 5 road games and one ranked opponent on theirs (and the ranked opponent is at home)...

The Great [QB] Debate:
Before the season started, I said that I thought Riley Nelson gave BYU its best chance to beat Florida State, TCU, and Utah. After watching what Air Force did to a steady dose of Nelson-only offense, I retract that statement completely.  I was dead wrong.  If Air Force can put 8 in the box and cover BYU receivers 1-on-1, those 3 teams could do it even more effectively (if it's possible to get less than 88 yards). The only way Nelson could "loosen" up the D was to throw an incomplete deep bomb to O'Neill Chambers, which doesn't even scare me as a defensive back and I haven't played competitive football in a decade. TJ was 100% right: Nelson and the offense failed because they were set up to fail. It didn't help that they were in a hole for the entire second half due to poor defense and special teams.

It Wasn't All Riley:
BYU's biggest problem was that not one single unit stepped up. The offense kept playing bad because the defense kept playing bad. The defense kept playing bad because "The Shank" couldn't kick it further than 25 yards. The Shank kept doing his thing because the offense kept playing so bad. And so on, and so forth. You kept waiting for a senior leader to step up and say "no more." But then you remembered that there is ONE senior on the offense and only a handful on the defense. And only 3 seniors are returning starters! Andrew Rich did come up and make a big third down stop. But then Air Force went for it on 4th down, ran away from the Manumaleuna/Pendleton/Rich side and scored a 40+ yard TD. In fact, most of Air Force's big plays went to the So'oto/Frazier/Thomas side. Coincidence? I think not.

BYU Scheduling Update:
Currently, BYU has 9 games scheduled for next season.  They have five home games against UCF, Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State.  Their four road matchups are Oregon State, Texas, Hawaii, and Louisiana Tech.  They have 7 games scheduled for 2012, without Utah or Notre Dame on there at this time.
A couple of things there:
1) I don't see four 2011 home games that ESPN wants to broadcast.  I think that means Utah and at least one other BCS program will travel to Provo, with the assistance of ESPN.  Those two games, along with Utah State and UCF, will probably be the four ESPN games.  The rest of the home games will in all likelihood be on BYU-TV.
2) Playing a game at Hawaii means that BYU could play 13 games next season, should they choose to.  I imagine they would choose to, which they definitely should if they can.  While I would hope they would go with a 7-6 home/away approach, my guess is that we'd see an 8-5 set-up, given road trips already set for Hawaii, Oregon, Texas, and Louisiana.  I don't think they want to take two more long-distance road trips (operating under the assumption that no MWC school wants to play them).  MWC schools will be looking for extra opponents, assuming Nevada and Fresno State are locked into the WAC, but I don't see any of the high-profile teams adding a game at BYU to their schedule, except for Air Force, perhaps.
3) This schedule, as it sits right now, is way worse than any MWC schedule would have been.  My guess is that at least 3 of those teams will be in the bottom 20.
4)  Notre Dame does have 2 openings for next year.  I don't know if the 6-game series would actually start next year or not, but BYU definitely needs Notre Dame to come to Provo in 2011.  Navy and Army are both maxed out for 2011, so don't expect them until at least 2012.