How I Feel

A lot of you that I have talked to have asked me how I feel about BYU's move to independence.  Well, I certainly feel a lot better about it than I did 2 weeks ago when I first heard about the potential move.  My biggest concerns are with scheduling 12 football games without a conference and with how well the football teams perform on the field.  [I suppose that a secondary/minor concern is what happens to softball, track and field, and swiming and diving.]

The first few years will be tough to get games.  I do not believe that the MWC schools will schedule BYU for the foreseeable future, particularly if they go to a 9-game conference schedule.  Although if the MWC is at 8 teams next year, perhaps Air Force or Wyoming will pick up BYU (Wyoming would get to "host" BYU, where Air Force would travel to Provo).  The WAC may still help BYU out next season with 2-4 games, but who knows if it will even exist beyond that.  There are always teams willing to take a paycheck to take a beatdown, but BYU doesn't want to overload the schedule with those types of teams.  As of today, they only have 3 games on the schedule for 2011 (at Oregon State, at Texas, and Utah State).  My guess is, given what ESPN would probably pay for a BYU-Utah game, that both sides will do what it takes to make that game happen now.  ESPN will probably help to get one or two other games in 2011 as well.  Perhaps they can swing Army, Navy, and Notre Dame, or at least two out of the three.  They will probably need a I-AA team or two, at least initially.  I wouldn't mind that kind of a schedule.

They must perform on the field.  If they don't, ESPN loses interest, BYU loses that exposure, and it gets tougher to schedule games.  If they perform, they will rise above that "non-BCS" status that has plagued them the past few years.  They won't become BCS status, but they will hover somewhere in between.  Lose, and this is a bad move.  9-3, 10-2 would be OK provided that there is an 11-1 or 12-0 mixed in.  BYU does not need BCS status, if they have 4-5 ESPN or ESPN2 games, with the others likely broadcast on real stations (even BYU-TV counts more than the Mtn), at 11-1 or 12-0, a BCS game (the Fiesta most likely) would take them.  As long as they don't have too many 7-5 or 8-4 seasons, I'm fine with this.

In hoops, a lot has been made that the WCC is not as good as the MWC.  That is true.  Today.   However, looking at St. Mary's and BYU both building momentum, with Gonzaga already an established power.  Now go the MWC.  Take out Utah, the most storied basketball program in the MWC, and BYU, the most followed/hated program, and replace them with Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada.  That MWC is no better than the WCC.  I'm not saying the WCC is better, but they are pretty equivalent.  The main difference: ESPN, money, and other exposure/BYU-TV.  At worst, it's a lateral move.  At best, it'll only help them.

We'll see the exact details of the TV situation from today's press conference, available at byutv.org at noon, Mountain Time.  I am guessing BYU will get to broadcast anything that ESPN doesn't, including basketball.  They might even get to broadcast the West Coast Conference hoops tournament as well, minus the championship game.

Again, I will be interested to see what the MWC gets on its TV deal at this point.  The deal is void without the Salt Lake market.  You could watch an SDSU-Wyoming football game and the only commercials were for Sonic, Zion's National Park, and Larry Miller Ford in Sandy.  Those ads, except for Sonic, are gone.  At this point, the biggest market that the MWC owns is Boise, and they only own that for football.  They own Albuquerque (and Vegas somewhat) for basketball, but we know basketball isn't the money maker.  Even if, a big if, the TV remained exactly the same, each school gets less revenue, since there will be 10 teams in the league.  If the conference revenue dips to, say, even $8 million, that amounts to about the same per school for all sports than BYU will get for any single football game, even on BYU-TV.  Also, does the MWC expand to 12?  Do they stay at 10?  Do they play a 9-game football schedule?  Does Mo rename his blog?

You cannot blame the MWC, Fresno State, or Nevada (or BYU) for the steps they have taken the past few weeks (or Utah for leaving for the Pac 12).  All parties acted in self-preservation.  Despite what others believe, I think this is where BYU stays, assuming it is about exposure as they say it is.  They can gain no greater exposure in the Big XII, only more money.  They will have a lot of the same issues in a BCS conference as they had in the MWC.  BYU is an independent school of thought, and should be an independent football program.  At least the WCC appreciates BYU's contributions in other sports.  The MWC (and old WAC) never did.

I definitely like the move a lot more today than I did two weeks ago.  We certainly have learned who BYU's friends are.