BYU-Utah State Preview

First off, this game will be broadcast on ESPN at 6pm, Mountain.  If you do not have cable, satellite, etc. you can probably find this game through your internet service provider at ESPN3.com.  Most major internet providers provide this service for free.  Second, if you are attending this matchup and headed from anywhere south of Salt Lake City: leave plenty early.  Friday night before General Conference is the absolute worst day for traffic of the year from Spanish Fork to Centerville.  It will take you 3-4 hours to get to Logan if you leave after 3:30pm.  Now to the matchups:

BYU O vs. Utah State D
Utah State's defense has been gashed for some kind of big yardage every game.  Oklahoma rushed and passed for over 200 yards.  Idaho State was able to throw for nearly 250.  Fresno State rushed for 230.  San Diego State threw for 362 and had over 500 total yards of offense.  They have also given up lots of points: 31, 17, 41, and 41.
BYU has been able to run the ball effectively in every game, except the Florida State game, when they didn't do anything effectively.  DiLuigi should get 15 carries this game, Quezada should get at least 5, and even Kariya should get 5 carries.  They've got to wear Utah State's defense down by running it down their throat early and often.  If BYU is concerned about bringing Jake along too early: run the ball.  Preferably not I-formation, double-tight end, show-how-tough-you-are type of stuff.  Last year with Tonga, Unga, Pitta, George, BYU could power-run.  This year, they don't have the FB or the TB to power through people.  Go 3 and 4 wide, shotgun formation, and use all 3 backs in the running game, DiLuigi outside, Kariya inside, and let the Juice loose wherever he wants.  Don't go under center until you get inside the 5-yard line.  I know I'm dreaming there, but wouldn't it be nice.
As far as throwing the ball: if they throw a single fade pass then the O-Coordinator has got to go.  Gary Anderson has taken all of the speed on the team and put it in the secondary.  They utilize a lot of man coverage principles.  BYU will not beat them deep on the outside.  BYU must beat team speed with precision routes all over the field, short, medium, left, right, middle, mixed with an occasional deep post route, or maybe even a wheel route, where a slot receiver (Jacobson please!) is matched with a safety or a linebacker.  No WR screens either.  Utah State will press and man-up on BYU receivers.  Gary Anderson has no respect (not in a negative way) for BYU's receivers.  He will trust his DBs on BYU's slow, weak WRs.  Until somebody steps up and makes a play, I'd do the exact same thing.
They need to run the ball to help Heaps be more effective.  They need 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 4, or the threat of the run on downs when they pass on 1st and 10.  Heaps needs to be around 60%, which will include the 5-6 drops he can expect from his WRs.
I think BYU can, and should, be successful against this weaker-than-anticipated Utah State defense.  Some receiver must step up and help though.  It was quite the contrast last week, watching the Bama-Arkansas game during timeouts of the BYU game: Mallett didn't always make perfect throws, but his WRs caught it anyway.  Right now, even when Heaps makes the perfect throw, they don't always catch it.  Regardless, BYU should push points across the board in every single quarter.

Utah State O vs. BYU D
Utah State is a better rushing team than passing, though they aren't great at either.  They have shown the ability to move the ball down the field in chunks, but they rely mostly on big plays.  This plays right into BYU's bend but don't break defensive strategy.  They give up the short stuff and force teams to drive down the field on them.  All it takes is one penalty, a missed block, an incompletion, etc. to put the opponent behind the chains.  Utah State has shown an affinity for mistakes.  They are 83rd in the country in penalties with over 60 yards a game, they have a QB with a 54% completion percentage, they give up 6.5 tackles for loss per game, and they average two turnovers a game.  If BYU can limit the long pass by tackling efficiently in space, Utah State will probably struggle to march down the field consistently: they will probably make at least one of those mistakes in a 10-play, 80-yard drive.
Utah State has great balance on O.  Not just with running and passing, but with spreading the ball around to lots of people.  5 WRs/TEs average 2 catches per game.  3 RBs are getting 4+ carries/game.  Their QB, Diondre Borel is also averaging 12.5 rushes per game (only 2.5 are sacks), though he has been bottled up for the most part.  They can come at you a lot of different ways with a lot of different guys.
BYU's D has been pretty porous through 3.5 games.  The lone "bright" spot was the 2nd half of the Nevada game, but even then they gave up a 9-minute scoring drive.  Did the defense turn a corner or did the coaches just make some good adjustments while Nevada made some poor ones?  We will know Friday night: if they can't contain Utah State's O, and keep them at, or under, their season average 24 points, they may come away with their 4th straight loss, with their bowl eligibility seriously in jeopardy.

The crowd will certainly have a lot of BYU fans in it, but it will remain extremely hostile for BYU.  How will Heaps respond?  Will the D be able to keep the crowd out of it by turning Utah State into a boring nickel-and-dime type of offense?  Bronco said this was not a make-or-break game.  I agree that a win may not "make" it, but a loss certainly "breaks" it.  Survive-or-break just doesn't have quite the same ring to it.  Whatever you call it, at 1-4 with two games they cannot win left on the schedule (TCU is out of the realm, and, if BYU is 1-4, then they aren't good enough to beat Utah), just getting to a bowl game will be difficult.

I am confident that BYU will get at least 12 points in the game.  I cannot say much more than that.  Anae has been afraid in the red zone.  They need to establish the middle of the field in the passing game, particularly once they cross the 50-yard line.  If they do that: they'll go for 31 points and win the game.  If they keep with the fade, power-run, screen-game in the red zone, 4 field goals is about all they can get, if they don't get the urge to run Kariya outside on 4th and 4 instead of taking the 3 points or throwing the rock.

Prediction
BYU's offense marches down the field.  BYU finds a way to punch it into the end zone ON A SLANT of all things.  Utah State manages a few big plays, but has no sustained drives.  BYU 27, Utah State 17.  BYU's D will need to make a stop late in the 4th quarter to seal it.  My guess is Jordan Pendleton with a big tackle behind the line of scrimmage or Andrew Rich with a big hit, followed by a good play (on a bad pass) by Brian Logan.