BYU, the BCS, and Mo's Model

If the BCS went beyond 25 teams (similar to an "others receiving votes" category we see with human polls) BYU would be the 26th ranked team in the BCS standings.  This is two spots below this week's opponent #24 Wisconsin and three below #23 Notre Dame.  Former BYU opponents Texas and Houston are knocking on the door of the BCS as well.

BYU, on average across the 6 rankings the BCS uses for its computer poll, has a computer ranking 15 spots higher than Wisconsin.  My own model has BYU ranked 14 spots higher than Wisconsin.  Notre Dame has a slightly better computer ranking than BYU in the BCS.  My model puts BYU slightly higher than Notre Dame right now.  BYU can change its fate with one simple win on Saturday.  It would vault them up in the BCS standings.  It would certainly make them favorites against a depleted Notre Dame defense.

My model currently projects BYU a winner over Wisconsin by 1-3 points.  If BYU and Notre Dame played this week, ND would be favored by 2 points, but, depending on the outcome against Wisconsin, that will change.  A BYU win would push BYU further up the rankings.  If Notre Dame struggles against Pitt, they are also apt to drop in my model, just as they did this week after struggling with Navy.

The most interesting factoid for BYU fans about my model: BYU leads the nation in wins against teams in the top 50 with 4, tied with Stanford.  Those wins are Texas (#23), Georgia Tech (#35), Houston (#29), and Boise State (#48).  Utah State is #51 and just missed the cut to give BYU 5, and one more than Stanford.  Better luck next week, Aggies.  Both BYU and Stanford will have chances this week to get their 5th top 50 win, though, admittedly, Stanford's win (Oregon) would be a lot more impressive than BYU's...

Virginia beating BYU is still the biggest "upset" of the year, according to my model, with Virginia currently ranked 70 spots below BYU.  Other candidates: South Florida over Cincinnati (66 spots), Central Michigan over Ohio (53), Vanderbilt over Georgia (37), Boston College over Virginia Tech (30).