Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Mo's BCS Thoughts, 12/4/2013

So I typically avoid talking about the BCS, the National Championship, etc. while there are still games to be played.  It's a pointless exercise b/c 90% of the time these "controversies" resolve themselves on the field.  It's very difficult to go undefeated and that bears out more often than not.

My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State.  I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State.  More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.

Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's.  Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too.  They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous.  It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.

The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State.  The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close.  Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS!  Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times.  Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:

Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State.  I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28.  At least.

#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even.  I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.

#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State.  The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns.  At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.

#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State.  It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.

#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State.  Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q.  Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.

#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State.  I know Florida was down, but it's Florida.  And it's Buffalo.  Home game vs. Road game.  MAC vs. SEC.  Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival.  20 vs. 30.  No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.

#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State.  This is the exact same opponent.  But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.

#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State.  See #7.

#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even.  SDSU>Nevada but 55>35.  Slight edge to Ohio State???  Maybe.

#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State.  On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.

#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.

#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively.  Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.

Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5.  We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in.  Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins!  Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field.  Go Sparty, go Mizzou.  I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State.  I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.

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