Sacks and Red Zone

The two areas that BYU fans seem the most concerned about (besides the secondary) are how many sacks they give up and how they perform in the red zone.  So, here are some thoughts.

SACKS
Taysom Hill has been sacked 22 times this season.  He has thrown 235 passes.  I realize there are times that he scrambles on called pass plays for positive yardage but I'd have to go revisit every play of every game to account for those.  So, leaving that out, statistically speaking, this means he gets sacked roughly every 11.8 passing plays.  In the 1980's or 1990's, or even the 2000's, that would actually be about average.  However, in today's high-octane spread offense where the ball comes out quickly, this is well below average (national average is 17.7).  In fact, last season, where it seemed Riley Nelson was constantly on the ground, it was every 17.6 passes that a BYU QB was sacked.

In 2013, there are only 21 teams that get sacked more frequently.  This is not the kind of company Garrett Tujague and Robert Anae would want to be associated with: Navy (3-3), Idaho (1-6), Florida International (1-5), Pittsburgh (4-2), Connecticut (0-6), New Mexico (2-5), Miami OH (0-7), Rutgers (4-2), Iowa State (1-5), Minnesota (5-2), Kansas (2-4), Army (3-5), Boston College (3-3), Northwestern (4-3), Florida (4-3), South Florida (2-4), Tulane (5-2), Eastern Michigan (1-6), Kentucky (1-5), Hawaii (0-6), and Central Michigan (3-5).  These teams combine for a 49-89 record, and none of them appear in this week's rankings (though Florida and Northwestern have at one point this season), and none of these offenses ranks in the top 50 for total or scoring offense except for Rutgers and New Mexico, but I'll go ahead and say that may have something to do with competition level and not quality of offense.

Now, I don't blame the shuffling on the OL like many do.  If anything, I actually think that helps keep BYU ahead of those other 21 teams.  Taysom Hill is not being sacked b/c of missed assignments.  Mobile QBs are sometimes difficult to block for.  Taysom's pocket presence isn't amazing in terms of when to step up, when to step back, and when to move left or right.  Realistically though, a lot of the sacks are guys just plain getting beat or guys who are beat (as in tired).  When BYU goes as fast and as hard as they do, the DL is still rotating more than the OL.  Plus, BYU does not have a lot of great offensive linemen to begin with (but more on that in the "Red Zone" section).  Shuffling isn't the problem, it's just not a great OL.

With that said, take out the 8 sacks in the Houston game, and all of a sudden, it's every 14.8 pass plays Hill gets sacked.  That adds another 15 teams that BYU would be better than.

RED ZONE
The first question to answer is: does BYU really struggle in the red zone or is it just fans having too high of expectations?  BYU has scored on 82.4% of all red zone possessions, good to tie for 72nd in the country, which is slightly below average (though, shockingly, Taysom/BYU are ranked higher than Johnny Football's aTm and Marcus Mariota's Oregon Ducks).  However, looking strictly at TD's, BYU gets touchdowns on only 50% of its red zone trips, putting them in a tie for 100th in the country, or the bottom quintile (and significantly worse than Johnny and Marcus, at 69% and 72%, respectively).  So, yes, BYU is struggling in the red zone.  The 51st highest scoring offense in the country is the 23rd worst red zone scoring offense.  That may explain why the 14th total offense in the country is the 51st scoring offense in the country...

To me, I believe the problem has generally been inside the 10-yard line, and that was evident in the Houston game.  On 4 possessions, BYU scored TDs in the red zone, but outside of the 10-yard line.  Justin Sorensen also made a FG on a red zone possession outside the 10-yard line.  However, on the 3 possessions BYU cracked the 10, they had 1 TD, 1 TO, and 1 FG.  100% scoring, 80% TD red zone scoring outside the 10-yard line vs. 67% scoring, 33% TD red zone scoring inside the 10-yard line.

Aggregating those numbers across all games, when BYU gets inside the 10-yard line, they have scored 10 TDs in 19 possessions.  7 of those TDs were either a 1 or 2-yard run.  The exceptions were a 4-yard pass to Falslev at Virginia, a 10-yard TD run from Paul Lasike against Texas, and a 6-yard pass to Mitch Matthews against Utah State.  Additionally, they have 5 turnovers inside the 10 yard-line and have attempted 4 field goals.

There are two things that stand out to me once BYU gets inside the 10-yard line: 1) they cannot pass and 2) they cannot run.  Taysom is 3-10 with 2 TDs and 1 INT from inside the 10-yard line: those numbers will not get the job done (in fact, they eerily match Taysom's numbers during BYU's 1-2 start to the season).  In terms of running the ball, BYU had 19 rushing attempts between the 3 and 10-yard lines and only managed ONE touchdown (12 of those attempts came against teams not in the top 50 scoring or rushing defenses, yielding the 1 TD).  If BYU can't throw the ball b/c Taysom is 30% with a 10% chance of an INT and BYU can't run the ball until they get 1 or 2 yards away from the end zone, it's problematic for expecting a better return in the red zone.

The problems are a young QB and an average Offensive Line.  Again, it isn't the shuffling of the OL that gets me.  There are 3 guys that are probably good but just aren't very experienced.  There are 3 guys who are experienced but are probably not very good.  There are 3 guys that I haven't made my mind up about yet (who are experienced).  If BYU doesn't have 5 good, experienced offensive linemen, which I believe is the case, BYU will have to fight for every inch on the goal line, which has definitely been the case.  In their defense, they have scored 7 TDs on 8 attempts from the 1 or 2-yard line.

Taysom is young.  He is getting better all-around, the red zone passing will improve.  Still, in the red zone, BYU's WRs see a lot of tight, press, man-to-man coverage.  That is not a scenario where they will consistently succeed.  I think BYU's red zone success will come through the maturation of young OL and Taysom making smarter decisions, finding better windows, and utilizing his mobility to get guys open (who won't get open on their own).  Otherwise, BYU will just have to rely on big plays to score.

A 53% TD ratio inside the 10-yard line is not the sign of an elite team.  BYU needs that number at 75-80% against Boise, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame, and the overall red zone TD % above 60%.  If they had done that for the season, they'd be 6-1 and ranked, with a victory over in-state rival Utah.  As it is, an average OL, a young QB, and zone-busting WRs in a man-to-man world means that BYU will likely only ever get ranked this season if they can beat Boise State and Wisconsin.

TD/Turnover/FG
10/5/4 (inside 10)
7/1/7 (outside 10)