This is the last one of these weeks for a few years. I will start by saying I like the two-year break between these next two games. I have stated many times that I would have had no problem if they never played again. I think both teams have outgrown each other and, after the arrival of Urban Meyer, the fan bases just got stupid. I think the only reason one team SHOULD feel the need to play the other is if they become irrelevant and playing the rival would give their fan bases one thing to get excited about...honestly, if I had never lived in Utah, I wouldn't even think about Utah outside of game week. Having lived in Utah...at least 25% of their "fans" are really just anti-BYU folks and I hope "their" team loses every game. 25% are actually Utah fans AND hate BYU. For the other 50%, thanks for being true to yourselves and I hope your team wins every game except for against BYU...keep in mind I pulled these numbers out of thin air, but I've found that to be true in my experience: 1/4, 1/4, 2/4...
BYU Rushing D
BYU is coming in to this game having just lost starting middle linebacker Spencer Hadley this week. The defense has been a strongpoint thus far for BYU, particularly the front 7. However, the loss of a 3-year contributor, vocal and emotional leader, and play-maker cannot be understated, particularly immediately preceding the rivalry game. I think his move to the inside in the middle of fall camp was a bit of a statement about lack of trust in the MLB position as much as it was a vote of confidence in giving more reps to Alani Fua. Who knows, perhaps this binds the team closer and they overcome with a brilliant performance. Although, if they lose another close contest to the Utes, perhaps teammates will feel he was somewhat responsible and not accept him upon his return from suspension as warmly...the funny thing is, he could have been suspended for drinking coffee or having his mustache grow too far below his lips...
Utah Rushing O
Utah is coming in after a hard-fought OT home loss to Oregon State. It was one in which their offense showed it is capable of putting up yards and points. Travis Wilson did his best Taysom Hill impression with his legs (and had more of a Max Hall type effort through the air, i.e. a lot of players involved, decently high completion % and yardage numbers, but with 3 INTs). They also showed the ability to drive the ball, with 4 possessions ending in points that took over 2:30 minutes off the clock, with 2 of those possessions lasting 11 plays. They showed that they are capable of driving the ball and not just needing big plays to score, which hadn't been the case prior to the Oregon State game.
Which is Better?
Right now, this seems to be a strength on strength matchup: Utah is averaging nearly 250 yards/game on the ground (28th in the NCAA), BYU is giving up 120.5 yards/game (35th). Will the loss of Hadley be enough to tip the scales into Utah's favor? Will BYU's lack of depth on the defensive line finally hurt them this week? Or will Wilson be contained by a front 7 who knows the biggest risk Utah poses to them is Wilson rushing for 10 yards/carry? Will the multiple JC transfers involved in Utah's run game falter in the face of some real get-hit-in-the-mouth type of adversity?
I do not have the answers to these questions...I suspect there is some give-and-take here. The loss of Hadley may prove an advantage for Utah. Perhaps conditioning or injury prevent BYU from keeping to their 6-man DL rotation, which may prove costly. BYU can probably keep Wilson wrapped up which will take some pressure off of their secondary. Utah's mostly new/revamped OL hasn't been challenged like they will be on Saturday. James Poole hasn't been hit like he will be (repeatedly) on Saturday night. Needless to say, if Utah gets 250 rushing yards, one would have to think they win. If BYU can hold Utah to 120 yards (and Wilson to 5/carry), it's certainly conceivable that it means a BYU win.
Ultimately, I think the end-result is much closer to BYU's average than Utah's. Utah State, Weber State, and Oregon State aren't exactly defensive juggernauts. Or, at least, Virginia and Texas posed greater challenges to BYU's rush D than USU, WSU, and OSU did to Utah's rush O. I'd put the O/U at about 150 rushing yards for Utah. I'd probably still take the under at that. Comments from the readers' gallery?
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