Utah-BYU Week, Post #3: Prediction

Coming into the season, I was confident that BYU could handle the Utes this year.  Really, that was the first time since...LaVell that I felt that way (actually, the Max Hall-Andrew George year I was confident, but that was an inaccurate assumption).  However, that dynamic has changed a little bit.  Here is why I was confident about BYU and why I'm not now.

1. BYU's Passing Game
I suspected that Taysom combined with Cody Hoffman and some experienced WRs would excel in the passing game.  I believed Anae's offense would be similar to what BYU fans got used to from 2006-2010 which was predictable but efficient, and for the most part solid in the passing game.  However, so far in 2013, Anae's offense has been neither predictable nor efficient.  The passing game has been as bad as I have ever seen out of a BYU team, or really any non-service academy.  I was confident that Taysom Hill's arm strength was going to be a large improvement over Riley Nelson's "grit."  I thought we'd see better play out of TEs and that Ridley, Falslev, Apo, and the rest of the clan would be better if for no other reason than that they were more experienced.  However, they are dropping passes, not getting open, and just generally not making any plays after they catch the ball.  It hasn't materialized.  But, man, they sure do block well...

2. Utah's Offensive Woes
With Dennis Erickson taking over, Utah had to be better on offense.  No offense to BJ but he's no offensive coordinator.  However, even with a new OC, it was still a young QB playing with a lot of JC transfers and a heap of underclassmen as backups (to the more experienced starters).  Utah State's D is down this year, no question, but Utah still dropped 30 on them.  Utah dropped 48 on Oregon State at home last weekend, which is impressive, unless you consider the fact that Eastern Washington dropped 49 on the Beavers AT Oregon State.  Regardless of competition, last year's Utah team wouldn't be averaging 40 points/game against the same 3 teams and this team is at almost 50.

3. It Finally Matters
BYU players finally acknowledged in the offseason that the rivalry matters.  For as long as I can remember, Utah has always cared more about this game.  They have always been the aggressor in the pre-game hype and on the field too.  They have always talked about it, year-round.  BYU never talked about Utah until Utah week and even then they were somewhat dismissive.  In fact, the script has flipped entirely this year.  Kyle Whittingham sounds like typical rivalry week Bronco this week and the Cougars sound like typical rivalry week Ute players.  In the offseason, players were looking forward to this game more than Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Boise State.  I don't think this is necessarily a new trend (unless Utah wins again this year) as ksl.com writer Patrick Kinahan does, but this year, for a change, BYU finally seems to have the passion the Utah players have had for this game for decades now.  It only matters more because of the 0-3 factor, in my opinion.  If BYU wins, in 2016, the Utes will be right back to caring more, particularly if they miss a bowl game or two in the interim.

Of course, then a video surfaces on the internet of Utah players mocking Mormons...which is 60% of the Ute fan base...so maybe it doesn't matter more to BYU than Utah this year, but it definitely matters more to BYU this year than it has to BYU in other years.

Prelude to a Prediction
So, the three things that I thought would give BYU a comfortable win for a change are not really there in the same magnitude as I originally thought.  The one thing that hasn't changed at all is BYU's propensity to make mistakes against Utah and Utah's mental toughness to avoid making the big mistakes against BYU.  Last year, BYU seemed to be a slightly better team but had three AWFUL plays that essentially gave 21 points to the Utes, without them even really having to do much.  Two years ago, Utah had a better team, but not that much better and 5 UNFORCED turnovers later, Utah is handed 35 points.  Three years ago, BYU had a slightly better team and an officiating mistake, compounded by a handful of small 4th quarter errors, and BYU blows a lead they held the entire contest and eventually has a last-second field goal blocked.  I could go back and do this for every game under Bronco and Kyle.  The teams were pretty even almost every year and the team that made fewer mistakes was almost always Utah and that was the difference in the game.

So how is this year going to be different?  How will BYU not commit the same atrocities of prior years?  Well, for one, Taysom Hill has shown he is better at handling those inevitable errant snaps than Nelson and Heaps.  Realistically, there is no evidence for a #2.  There is no reason to think that Taysom Hill and his 33% completion percentage is going to avoid a Max Hall-esque 5 turnover 3rd/4th quarter meltdown.  There is no reason to think that BYU's return teams can avoid fumbling the ball on all the punts/kickoffs they receive.  There is no reason to believe that BYU is going to sustain drives and flip field position in critical moments as it failed to do in both 2012 and 2010.  There is no reason to think that this BYU defense will do a better job at causing Utah turnovers than it has in the past.  If anything, BYU's D seems less capable of forcing turnovers through 2 games this season than the teams that haven't forced much of anything against Utah in previous years.

Utah's D has been criticized this season by a lot of people.  But their run D hasn't been the reason for the criticism.  Unless Taysom can complete some passes and BYU's receivers can man up and make Utah's DBs pay for tight press-man coverage, I don't see BYU being able to exploit the weaknesses in the Utah defense.  The front 7 is not the weakness, especially when the Utes don't really have to respect the passing game of BYU (at least not until the Cougars prove otherwise).  They can commit 8 guys to the box.  It will force BYU to do one of two things: open up the passing game (and be successful at it) or break tackles in the running game (b/c there wouldn't be any help if a LB or SS miss the tackle).

Prediction
The first possession will tell the story.  BYU is going to start with the ball.  If Utah wins the toss they will defer to get the ball in the 2nd half (like a normal team), if BYU wins it, they will take the ball to "send a message" (or whatever reason Bronco has for constantly starting with the ball even when he wins the coin toss).  If BYU goes 3 and out then it's potentially lights out.  Based on how these games have gone in the past, BYU cannot afford a slow start.  Utah has owned the 3rd quarter the past two seasons (17-0 and 16-0).  The last two times in Provo, Utah has owned the second half (40-0 and 14-7).  If BYU starts 3 and out, Utah will have good field position, and they can explode for big plays both running and throwing the ball.  If it doesn't happen the first possession, it will happen the second, or perhaps maybe the BYU D holds out until the 3rd possession before giving up the big play.  But it will happen, and will happen early.  BYU can't afford to not be ahead when it does.

With that said, I think BYU goes 3 and out.  Utah takes the early lead.  The defense rallies around Kyle Van Noy and FINALLY forces some Utah turnovers.  Cougars take back the 3rd Q and send the Utes packing early in the 4th as they build up a commanding 3-score lead.  Jamaal "only" rushes for 100, Taysom finally passes for 200, KVN scores at least once, and BYU wins 31-17.

Yes, that was a fun scenario to think about.  Realistically, I think turnovers, big plays for Utah's O, and too many "three and outs" doom BYU to a 4th consecutive loss.  My preseason confidence entirely eroded in a 19-16 Virginia win and weren't restored just b/c BYU ran on an unmotivated and untested Texas D.  Utah's run D will clamp down on BYU, as it always has, I'd be shocked if the Cougars got 200 yards rushing.  I think Utah probably looks awful doing it, but BYU looks awful-er, and a win is a win is a win (just ask Utah State after their game with Utah).  Utah 24, BYU 17.  Rest in peace, rivalry!  I will not miss you one iota the next two seasons.