Friday, December 27, 2013

UW-BYU, Fight Hunger Bowl Prediction

UW has more established and consistent playmakers.  BYU has the stingier defense.  BYU has a less dynamic coaching staff, but they will all be there for the bowl game.

UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill.  He's played in big-time games and performed well in them.  His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time.  Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.

RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season.  He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games.  He's also averaging 12 yards/reception.  He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games.  But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry.  In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.

4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season.  TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions.  They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.

In addition, they have a solid rushing attack.  And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.

UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking.  But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season.  So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did.  However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game.  Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.

The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points.  All three were Husky losses.  In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers.  In the other 9 games, they forced 19.

BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team.  BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games.  I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.

However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation.  Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season.  UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box.  I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far.  This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable.  These are very different times in Provo.  This team should have been better than it was.  Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board.  Usually, BYU does just the opposite.

Washington 31, BYU 27.

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