Why Does This Game Matter
It is true that on any given Saturday, if a team does not prepare or come ready to play, they can get beat by just about anybody. The team must take each game seriously or they may get embarrassed. But I don't play for the team, I root for them. I don't like being told why I need to care about any particular game, or what's intriguing about a particular matchup by some sports writer who spent a few minutes on Monday morning researching a team for an article he had to write to get fans excited.
I care about the game, and the matchup is intriguing, because BYU is playing in the game. I did my research over the summer and throughout the season, so I don't really care what someone found out pouring through stats on Monday morning. I've watched them whenever possible, I followed them last season and saw what they had coming back, I followed the coaching staff changes in the offseason. But again, I don't play for the team, I root for them (and I'm not the average BYU fan).
My preparation does not have to be the same. My expectations certainly do not have to be the same as the players. They need to approach every game with that mindset that they can get beat, they can go into the game expecting a hard fought battle. However, my perspective on BYU's game against Nevada is simple: win big. Anything less will be a disappointment and a sign the team didn't buy what their coaches, and the newspaper guys, were selling.
Why This Game Should Be A Blowout
Nevada played 8 bowl-eligible teams this season; BYU will be the 9th. The Wolfpack are 1-7 in those games, with the lone win coming against (now 6-6) San Jose State at home two weeks ago. Perhaps that win looks better now that SJSU has derailed Fresno State's hopes of a BCS bid this season. Still, Nevada did not gain bowl eligibility against a schedule that any decent team should feel at least somewhat secure in a bowl bid against. Their SOS ranks anywhere between 70 and 80, depending on which SOS "system" you trust. My model rates it #70, in case anyone was curious.
5 of their 7 losses were by double digits. Their three FBS wins came against teams with a combined record of 8-26. One of those wins was a 3-point win at home over a 2-9 Air Force team. They are 76th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in scoring defense, against a schedule that was, again, depending on which SOS you trust, about 60 spots lower ranked than BYU's schedule. BYU is 54th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.
Nevada's Offense
Their offense played one legitimate defense this season: Florida State's (#2 in scoring defense at 11.4 points/game). The 2nd best defense they faced was Boise State (#48, 24.4 points/game). In those two games they scored 7 and 17, though both games were on the road. Florida State gave up 8.7 points/game at home and Boise gave up 13, so Nevada was about on par with that. BYU gives up 21 points/game, though it is 25.8 points/game on the road. The team that strikes me offensively as the most similar to Nevada from BYU's schedule was Utah State. Mobile QB, young and inexperienced coach, and a small but generally lively home crowd. BYU held them to 14 at home (though 2 caveats there: Chuckie Keeton got hurt early, and Utah State scored late in the 4th quarter to even get to 14).
At the beginning of the year, a friend of mine chastised me for not including Cody Fajardo in my list of good QBs BYU would face this year. He's had a pretty stellar season, completing 68% of his passes, while throwing 12 TDs to only 2 INTs, and he rushed for over 600 yards as well. As much as I hate the term (because it is usually only applied to non-BCS conference QBs), Nevada is a "system offense" and it's designed for numbers like that, and most QBs would have similar success there. So he's had a good season, but I wouldn't qualify him as a good QB (the same way I wouldn't call Kevin Feterik a particularly good QB in BYU's QB history).
The "System"
His yards/attempt is 7.41 yards, which probably doesn't mean much to a lot of people. I look at that as a sign that most passes are thrown close to the line of scrimmage: screens, hitches, slants, swing passes. Those passes are inherently safer, hence the high completion % and few INTs thrown. The "Heisman" contenders all average at least 8.5 yards/attempt and some push 10-11 yards.
His top 5 WRs all average less than 13 yards/catch. The only WR that averages more than that has 3 catches for 79 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Contrast that to BYU, where the top 2 pass catchers average 16.6 and 17.3 yards/catch. The next two average 12.0 and 9.9 (Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev, who are targeted on the shorter throws, screens, etc.). The next two average on the list average 14.6 and 14.7 yards/catch. Teams that feature deep threats or any kind of intermediate passing game tend to have a majority of major WRs over 13 yards/catch.
But Nevada is a nickel and dime type of offense. Cody Fajardo truly is a system QB who can rack up stats between the 20's (where BYU's D likes to give up lots of stats). He is one of the 15 best QBs in terms of completion %, but he drops outside the top 40 in terms of 3rd down conversion % and red zone scoring %. That disparity is what makes him a system QB, in my opinion. He can complete passes on 1st and 2nd down, with softer coverage and the threat of the run, but on 3rd down and in the red zone, where every QB's number suffer, his suffers significantly more.
Still, I suspect Fajardo will have a good day against BYU. He'll probably complete 60+% of his passes for around 225-250 yards, convert a larger-than-normal % of third downs in passing situations, and probably will have a TD or two through the air as well. I find it very unlikely he throws a pick. He'll probably bust a big run or two and finish with 70 or 80 yards rushing as well. Nevada is averaging 27 points/game. If BYU can figure out what they couldn't figure out against Houston, they should hold Nevada under that. I suspect 23 points would be a good day for Nevada against BYU.
Nevada's Defense
Their defense had to play against two top-5 scoring offenses, and four in the top 25. But only 1 other team was in the top 50 (Colorado State #43) in scoring offense. UCLA scored 21 more than their season average against Nevada, Air Force had 16 more, and San Diego State had 22. Colorado State and UNLV straddle BYU in terms of scoring offense, and they basically scored their season average against Nevada. San Jose State and Hawaii were the only teams that scored significantly less than their season averages against Nevada.
Based on that alone, BYU fans should expect at least 31 points against Nevada. BYU is averaging 31.6 against a much more difficult level of competition than CSU did getting 33.4 or UNLV did to hit 30, or that Nevada faced in giving up 35 points/game. So realistically, I would up my expectations to at least 38 points from BYU. Anything less would be a disappointment. BYU dropped 40 against Texas, 31 on the road against Utah State (a much better team from the same conference), 47 on the road at Houston, and 37 against Boise State (again, a much better team than Nevada from the same conference). 38 points against a porous defense isn't asking too much. That is my minimum bar for a successful game from BYU. I would hope they could put up 45 or more, but the weather often does funny things this time of year in Reno...
Prediction
Well, I basically went through my reasoning for my expectations in terms of points. I will stick with that basic reasoning and pick a final of: BYU 41, Nevada 23. Again, this should not be a game in the 4th quarter. If it is a game, then shame on BYU players and coaches for not taking it seriously enough. As a fan, this is a game I should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Assuming I can find the Mountain West's awful TV coverage...
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