Previewing Wisconsin

Schedule
Wisconsin has amassed a 6-2 record and has been ranked in at least one poll each week this season excluding the two week-period following their 2nd loss of the season (by 7 points at Ohio State).  My model shows Wisconsin as 6-0 in games against opponents outside of the 50, and 0-2 against teams in the top 50.  In terms of their 2 losses, they had an opportunity to beat both Arizona State and Ohio State on the road.  Not just "had a shot" to win, but in all actuality probably should have won both games.

In the 6 wins, they played 3 teams I rank in the bottom 30 of the FBS (Massachusetts, Purdue, and at Illinois), 1 FCS team, and 2 teams right around the middle of FBS teams (Northwestern and at Iowa), but still in the bottom half.  So, they really haven't been tested, except in games that they were not successful.  They have also yet to play a quality opponent at home.

My model ranks Wisconsin's schedule as the 86th most difficult in the country (or rather the 40th easiest schedule).  Only 5 BCS conference teams have played an easier schedule than Wisconsin (3 of them are Big Ten teams!  The other two are NC State and Baylor.).

BYU is the biggest test Wisconsin has the remainder of the season.  It will be the toughest opponent they will have at home during the entire season.  This is really Wisconsin's one shot at a signature win to put on their season given the losses at Arizona State and Ohio State.  Winning at Minnesota in two weeks wouldn't be a bad resume builder, but it wouldn't be as impactful as beating BYU this weekend.  This is one that Gary Anderson needs to get.

Strengths (Bold, italicized if in top 10)
Pass Defense: 195.1 yards/game (15th in the nation)
Rush Defense: 90.4 yards/game (5th)
Total Defense: 285.5 yards/game (6th)
Scoring Defense: 15.0 points/game (5th)
Red Zone Defense: 76.2% possession scored (25th)
Red Zone TD Defense: 38.1% TDs allowed (1st)
3rd down defense: 29.2% opponent conversion rate (6th)
Kickoff returns: 25.13 yards/return (14th)
Sacks Allowed: 1.25/game (26th)
Rush Offense: 287.0 yards/game (10th)
Total Offense: 494.6 yards/game (18th)
Scoring Offense: 38.4 points/game (20th)
Time of Possession: 33:23 (9th)

Weaknesses
Net Punting: 35.94 yard/punt (88th)
Interceptions: 7 (82nd)
Passing Offense: 207.6 yards/game (86th)

Clearly, Wisconsin's D has been superb across the board and in the red zone.  However, a lot of that has to do with their easy schedule.  In the Arizona State loss, the Badgers gave up 468 total yards, 32 points, and the defensive TD rate in the red zone was 57%.  Against Ohio State, they gave up 192 rushing yards, 31 points, and only rushed for 104 yards.  So, while they have been superb in their 6 wins against 6 teams in the bottom half of FBS, in their two quality opponents, they have shown vulnerabilities, even in categories where they are top 10 nationally.

What I Expect
I expect to see a Badger team that wants to be physical.  Gary Anderson prided himself in past games against BYU to beat them physically.  He was successful in that more often than he wasn't.  Now he has real talent, size, and athleticism across the board.  He should be able to succeed there again based on the increase in the caliber of players that he has at Wisconsin.  What he doesn't have going into this game though is guys that care about this game more than any other game, like he did at Utah and Utah State.  The Aggies could always play their best against BYU b/c half the players were Utah born and bred and grew up knowing about BYU.  I'm not sure a lot of the Badgers could find Provo on a map.  Most of them know nothing about the Cougars and this is just another game to them.

On the flip side, I expect BYU to play with a chip on their shoulder.  After the way they have performed against Gary Anderson in recent years, they'll be the ones trying to prove something against him.  He was familiar with Doman and the "old" Anae offense.  Schematically, he might have some ideas of what to do with BYU that may not prove useful.  Even if the schemes would be effective, Wisconsin doesn't know BYU's personnel inside and out like Anderson is used to with Utah and Utah State.  The offense is obviously different than it has been in the past.  Even the defense has transformed in recent seasons as Bronco has really dialed in and taking the defense up a level.

I'd be shocked to see Wisconsin blow BYU out.  Heading into the season, I expected them to win handily.  I expected Anderson to bring his intimate knowledge of BYU and put together a game plan similar to what he had done in the past and be successful.  BYU has evolved though.  It's not the same team Gary Anderson knew.  It's not the same personnel.  It's not a team that's unsure of itself or lacks confidence, as he faced so often in the past decade.

I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way.  I think the Badgers trust their coach, I think they expect to win in the trenches.  So if BYU got off to a quick start, I don't know how they would respond.  How would Gary Anderson respond?  He has never seen that in any of his games against BYU.  I certainly don't EXPECT that.  But what if BYU slows down the running game as it has with so many rushing attacks the past few seasons and Joel Stave can't get it going through the air, or Jared Abbrederis struggles in his first game back off of injury?  The Badgers might be shell-shocked and unable to recover.  They had a similar experience against Ohio State.  Again, I certainly don't expect it, but it would shock me a lot less than BYU suffering the same fate.

What I do expect to see is a hard-fought contest between two good teams.  I don't imagine the home crowd will have that big of an impact on the game, given that BYU doesn't audible much and does a lot of communicating on offense with hand signals.  Plus it will be a sunny day, but with a high at 51, the crowd may not be as rowdy as on a 70-degree or 20-degree day.  Normally, in a game like this that I expect to be back and forth, I'd say advantage home team.  I think the bye week for BYU will help them prepare for that.  I would love to see them try a trick play early on and stun the crowd.  It would certainly surprise Gary Anderson who has seen only 1 or 2 of them in 10 games against BYU.

We shall see.  My expectations with BYU are rarely reality.