Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Previewing Notre Dame

There is only one team I have watched this season as closely as BYU: the Fighting Irish.  They are a solid team, with some individual talent, but they are not an unbeatable, dominant opponent (nor were they last season), as BYU made Wisconsin look like in Madison two weeks ago.  Here is my take on Notre Dame.

Notre Dame's Defense
The Irish D is big upfront.  Their DL is athletic and disruptive in the middle.  Their LBs are physical.  Their DBs play a similar scheme to BYU but are bigger, faster, more physical, and play the ball in the air (slightly) better.

Teams have tried to attack Notre Dame's D a variety of ways this season with a varying degree of success.  In my opinion, the most successful offenses were Michigan, Arizona State, and Navy.  Oklahoma put up 35 points, but 14 of those were mostly the result of turnovers and they had one other big TD play when ND's D bet the farm at the end of the game.

Michigan used a precision passing attack complemented by a power running attack.  They had a mobile QB, but he was successful in the pocket and stayed there most of the game, targeting mostly one great WR.  They had the most balanced approach to success against Notre Dame.

Arizona State ran a wide open short-passing attack.  They focused on short routes, swing passes, and screens.  They had very little success on the ground, but they didn't let that slow them down on their way to 34 points and over 350 yards passing.

Navy hit Notre Dame with the triple option attack, which really tested the athleticism of ND's big, physical LBs.  Navy pounded the LBs up the middle with the Fullback, they ran them ragged with their Wingbacks on the outside, and they used some misdirection and trap blocking to keep them guessing.

Notre Dame's Offense
This is not exactly the type of offense that Brian Kelly would want.  It's not a precision passing team.  It's not a power running team.  The offense really lacks a clear identity right now.  In addition, Tommy Rees has thrown 7 interceptions in the 3 losses and only 3 in the 7 wins.  If he doesn't turn it over, Notre Dame has success.  Really, the Irish O only had 3 games where the O looked like a solid unit: Arizona State, Air Force, and Navy.

Big offensive line, built for a power running game.  Tommy Rees is a power running game QB, built for play-action passing game.  Big problem is there is no power-running game RB.  Cam McDaniel is a bruiser, but he's more of a 3rd down back.  George Atkinson III is the big play threat, but he is incapable of running between the tackles.  They have some quality pass-catching threats in TJ Jones and Troy Niklas.  The big-play threat in the passing game is DaVaris Daniels, but he's been battling nagging injuries the past month, perhaps the bye week will help him get healthy.

There are solid individual pieces for the Notre Dame offense, they just haven't been able to put it together, mostly due to lack of play makers in the backfield.  Specifically, against quality competition, they haven't hung onto the ball.

How BYU Matches Up
BYU's O has some elements that each of the successful opponents of Notre Dame had, but does not have a full complement of any of them.  BYU's D has forced some turnovers, but the O has to then capitalize, which it hasn't done this season.  The teams that have defeated ND have both forced the turnovers and capitalized on it.  I expect a game similar to last season's, with both offenses kind of struggling and a defensive slugfest ensuing.  There are chances for some big plays by both teams, I would say more likely ND through the air and BYU on the ground.  I wouldn't wait around for a lot of big long, time-consuming drives.  I think the defenses are too good and the offenses are too inconsistent.  It should be an entertaining game for those of us that like lower-scoring chess matches where one wrong move may spell doom.

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