A lot of BYU fans I know were convinced that Taysom Hill would solve all woes BYU had over the past few seasons with Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson. Many said BCS. Some even thought it was conceivable to go 12-0 and have a legitimate shot at a national title. I tried to taper everyone's expectations, I learned long ago that everyone's undefeated in fall camp, and a lot of QBs/WRs look good in August against the BYU secondary. Taysom was unproven and inexperienced (a handful of games, mostly in a reserve role, doesn't make one experienced). He would undoubtedly struggle a bit. Now to the meat...
Utah's Passing D
Quite honestly, Utah has had difficulties defending the pass this season. However, let's be honest about what they have seen so far. Chuckie Keeton is, by all accounts, a fantastic collegiate QB. He is both mobile and accurate. Watching him in his first season, he looked very similar to Colin Kaepernick, who dismantled pretty good BYU and Boise State defenses. I saw a lot of similarities with mobility, arm strength, and decisiveness. Keeton also had a lot of options to throw to as the Aggies utilize all three layers (RBs, TEs, and WRs) of the passing game as good as anyone west of the Mississippi. Throw out Weber State, that was a glorified scrimmage. Next up, Utah had to contend with Sean Mannion, an experienced strong-armed QB going on his 3rd year playing under a smart coach, throwing to an NFL-caliber WR in Brandin Cooks.
In Utah's base coverage (man-to-man), those are not good matchups for them. If you ask me, it's one of the big reasons they have struggled in the Pac 12 defensively. They were one of two teams in the MWC that had the talent at DB to play man coverage almost exclusively in that conference. But they were only talented enough to do that consistently against MWC QBs, WRs, and OLs. They can't get the kind of pressure they are used to, especially rushing just 4 or 5 guys, against the better Pac 12 OLs and the Utah DBs are on islands longer than they can handle against the better Pac 12 QBs and WRs. Utah isn't struggling in pass defense right now b/c they are awful; they are struggling b/c they weren't as good as their competition. So let's look at what this week's competition will bring.
BYU's Passing O
Taysom Hill has been asked to do a lot of things for a young signal-caller in his first year as a starter. As much as local BYU-goggled media touted the quality of the WR group for the Cougars, outsiders who look at it rationally have a tough time believing that, outside of Cody Hoffman, there are any prime-time players in the group. Skyler Ridley had one good game last season and disappeared the rest of the season. Falslev will get his but won't demand extra attention from opposing secondaries. Mitch Mathews may be tall, athletic, with a huge vertical, but so was Peter Warrick (Florida State guy who never really lived up to the hype in college and completely flopped in the NFL). "Testing" well doesn't mean playing well. The fact is he had 2 catches last season for a reason. He likewise only has 2 so far this season for a reason. These guys are mostly zone-busters that can pick apart open spaces but can't shake a guy locked in on them in man coverage.
In addition, Robert Anae has placed Taysom Hill in some pretty difficult positions. I didn't have time to go back and re-watch the whole game, but in the first quarter, I found some pretty telling statistics on Taysom Hill. On short passes (target less than 8 yards down the field), he was 3-4 for 26 yards. Admittedly, this included a "screen" where the pass was technically a lateral and running play but Taysom's confidence didn't know that at the time. On medium passes (target is between 8-20 yards down the field), he was 1-6 for 16 yards. On deep passes (target more than 20 yards down the field), he was 0-2. He had twice as many non-short throws as short throws, but completed a third as many.
Additionally, Taysom is 1-4 throwing to the left side of the field for 11 yards. 0-2 across the middle. 3-7 to the right side for 31 yards. He has essentially identical attempts to left/middle as he does to right and triple the completions/yardage.
Advantage: Utah (and it might get ugly)
If Taysom is 1-8 on non-short throws and 1-6 on throws NOT to the right, I'm loading the box and playing press-man coverage on the outside to take away the short routes, with a safety over top on the right side. I would dare Taysom Hill to beat me throwing the ball medium/long and/or left. I would force the BYU WRs to show they are worth any of the preseason accolades Utah media threw their way. I would do that the entire first half without remorse. Other than two long passes to Cody Hoffman against Texas, BYU had one completion over 15 yards (a 16-yard completion in the 1st Q). If they beat me, congratulations. If I were Coach Whit or Sitake, I'd feel comfortable with my guys in those situations.
If Anae doesn't help Hill out (and he's had two weeks to figure this out), the edge here goes to what is statistically a weak Utah pass D (though, again, it is probably better than it appears on paper and has just been burned by good QB/WR play). They probably won't see much of that "good QB/WR play" on Saturday night...maybe BYU's best chance here is to just not turn the ball over in the passing game and beat Utah with a steady diet of running and defense??
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