Thursday Thoughts, 10/6/2011

Why I Love You Tube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weS8U5zLXHs

BYU and the Big XII
I have a more lengthy diatribe on this that you can read here: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/09/byu-and-big-xii.html

The media, which hasn't ever been wrong when it comes to expansion rumors (ha ha), seems to think BYU to the Big XII is a foregone conclusion.  As much as I don't want to see BYU pull a Utah State and turn down an invitation that may be the death knell of the program, I just can't help but feel that Independence could work out well for BYU, as long as there are any Independents in the FBS.

I have been asked many times about BYU's path to Independence and I present the same arguments to anyone that asks.  I have learned one thing: those with a disposition to hate BYU (most Ute fans, those who hate Mormons, and Mormons that cheer for Arizona State) think BYU's choice is idiotic and arrogant, which happen to be the same traits that they apply to all BYU fans, and those with a more open mind think Independence is a sweet deal for BYU, including several Big XII fans I have discussed it with.  If Big XII fans, once they are acquianted with the particulars of BYU's situation, are willing to say that BYU should definitely stay Independent instead of going to the Big XII, it's safe to say there is some merit to it.  Granted, fans may not be the best resource for determining conference alignment, but still, there is SOME merit to it.

There is no rush to jump into this thing.  Clearly, BYU has taken the same approach.  The biggest "rush" would be if BYU were to jump to the Big XII for the 2012 season: they have a lot of scheduled games to cancel for 2012.  And 2013.  Teams would need time (and monetary compensation) for those cancellations.  The Big XII would probably have to pick up the tab for that, which may be one negative in picking up BYU, a negative probably totalling well over a million dollars when all is said and done.  However, picking up any team currently in a conference will cost the Big XII money, as every conference has some kind of penalty for leaving with such short notice.  Perhaps BYU becomes a bargain in that environment.  Who knows.  It's not a foregone conclusion.  Independence can work, but only if BYU produces on the field.  [If BYU is going to start every season 3-2, they might as well at least be in a BCS conference.]

Jake and Riley
I think this is Jake Heaps' best chance to have a solid outing.  He is facing by far the "smallest" of the defenses he has faced so far this season.  The LBs, on average, are the size of RB Bryan Kariya.  The DBs, on average, are the size of WR McKay Jacobson.  The DEs, on average, are smaller than TE Austin Holt.  Physically, these LBs shouldn't be able to get off BYU's OL blocks or punish BYU's RBs in the running game.  The DBs shouldn't be able to cover two 6'4" 205 pound WRs, or any of the TEs either.  The two DTs shouldn't get manhandled by the three 300-pounders lining up across from them every play.

All of that aside, I think Heaps should get one more shot, even if it is a brief one, to get things going.  Maybe it's Heaps' fault the offense has been sluggish.  But the offense came to life in the fourth quarter last week.  They looked excited to be out there for once.  He has not played with an offense like that this season and if they can bring that same intensity to the SJSU game, Heaps may have a special night.  Now almost certainly, it was Riley Nelson that brought that out of the offense, but, now that they know they have that extra gear, if the offense could play like that for Jake, with that heart, it might resemble what we all anticipated prior to the season.

Now if Jake isn't working out, say late in the second quarter, then by all means, give Riley a possession to end the half (BYU has been wildly unproductive that drive anyway, which has cost BYU a lot of momentum in each game this season so far).  I am in no way stating that BYU should go back to last season's alternating series approach.  I would give Jake 3 or 4 series to produce.  However, that doesn't mean Riley Nelson can't see a few snaps in those series.  Riley provides a change of pace, but he can still provide that in a play or two under center randomly thrown in.  He doesn't need entire series, quarters, or halves to provide that.

Experienced D
This is the most experienced defense BYU will face this season.  They return every starter from last season and, I believe, 18 of the 22 players on the 2-deep from last season.  BYU will not confuse this defense with tricky formations or gadget plays.  These guys played against Utah, Nevada, Boise State, and Utah State last season.  They've seen it all.

Riley Nelson's mobility won't be anything new to them.  These guys played against Colin Kaepernick, Diondre Borel, and Bryant Moniz last season.  Kaepernick and Borel were better runners than Riley, and Kaepernick and Moniz were better throwers.  BYU will have to rely on their biggest weakness so far to move the ball on this defense: execution.

BYU will have to get push upfront against SJSU's big DTs (the only not small part of the defense) to get the running game going.  BYU will have to protect against the speed rush of the DEs.  They must block SJSU's front four well.  If it takes all 5 OL to block those 4 DL, do it: missing ONE block has killed this offense.  A LB making a tackle at the point of attack makes for 2nd and 8.  A DL making a tackle in the backfield makes for 2nd and 12.  BYU's RBs are also more likely to break an LB tackle than they are a DL one (go watch the film if you don't believe me, or just trust me, that is a factual statement I made).  Block the front four, succeed in the rushing attack.  Add a FB as a lead blocker, and it's even better.  Run Riley with two lead blockers and it could really take off.  But BYU's OL need to block the front four better than they have been.

The WRs need to get open.  Cody Hoffman put on a beautiful double move last week before making a diving catch.  BYU needs more of that.  Guys are just not getting open.  On that game-winning TD, JJ DiLuigi got beat to the ball by the Utah State defender.  I think that's the kind of "coverage" (read lack of getting open) that Heaps is seeing all game long.  Riley was able to buy time with his legs, and that gave the defense trouble covering for that long, because they jumped the routes so well.  If BYU is to succeed, and if Heaps is EVER to succeed at BYU, the WRs need to start getting off the line and getting out of their breaks faster.  And, for heaven's sake, throw the ball to Cody Hoffman.  BYU has been waiting for a receiver to break out: there's your man!  Target him more than 6 times a game.

BYU must execute.  They must play smart, but with some heart.  This isn't a finesse game.  This isn't a game to trick the opponent.  This is a power game.  This is about beating your man, knocking him on his butt, and making him beg for the final whistle.  Execute.  Dominate.  Win.