BYU-Oregon State Preview, 10/15/2011

BYU's O vs. Oregon State's D
As I highlighted earlier this season, BYU has struggled in the running game in recent seasons against BCS conference defenses.  Oregon State's defense has been pretty stout in run D so far this season, giving up just 3.68 yards/carry for the season.  [It held Wisconsin to a season low in rushing yards.  UCLA and Wisconsin are the only two teams to have consistent success in the running game against Oregon State.]  These two items together may not be a great combination.  However, with the energy of the offense under Riley Nelson (and his mobility in general) and the emergence of Michael Alisa, it will be interesting to see if this trend can change, starting on Saturday.

As impressive as Oregon State's run D has been, their pass D has been equally unimpressive.  Opposing teams are completing 67.1% of passes against them for 253.4 yards/game.  Oregon State's passer rating D is 113th in the country.  BYU should theoretically be able to take advantage of this, and historically speaking they would definitely exploit this.  However, Riley Nelson came down to earth a bit last week in the passing game, completing just 58% of his passes for 219 yards at home against San Jose State.  This is a more athletic, more physical defense on the road.

The Beaver defense isn't good, by any means, but the BYU offense, other than a half dozen drives this season, hasn't been very good either.  Even then, it's hard to imagine BYU not being to move the ball for at least 360 yards and 5 scores against this defense.  It's not a good defense.  Statistically speaking, this is one of the bottom half of defenses BYU will face this season.  It's a defense that gave up enough points to lose to FCS Sacramento State at home.  If Riley gets in rhythm and the BYU run game overcomes their recent struggles, BYU will score 31 or more for over 400 yards.  If they can't, it'll be much closer to that 24 and 360.

BYU's D vs. Oregon State's O
Oregon State would love to be a balanced offense, but the running game has not been very good, ranking 104th in yards/game at 110 and averaging just 3.09 yards/carry.  In the passing game, they are starting a redshirt freshman at QB.  But he is completing 66% of his passes for 256 yards/game.  He has thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 TDs.  BYU fans can relate to the progression of this young Oregon State QB: great and atrocious, all wrapped up in one.

With BYU's secondary, I think that 66% and 256 yards is about a minimum for the Oregon State offense.  With BYU's front 7, I think Oregon State will be held to less than 3.09 yards/carry and 110 yards.  BYU's best hope is that Oregon State doesn't completely abandon the running game, because BYU's pass D cannot make enough plays, particularly with some playmakers for the Beavers.  Markus Wheaton has the longest reception of the season (69 yards).  Jordan Bishop has the longest TD of the season (45 yards).  James Rodgers' abilities have been nationally recognized over the past two seasons.  TE Joe Halahuni is a touchdown maker in the red zone.  If Oregon State becomes pass-oriented, BYU could be in trouble.

What BYU does have going for it is ability to bring pressure, particularly from the outside linebacker position.  With a young, indecisive QB, if the D can get to him on 5-step drops and get hands up on 3-step drops, the Oregon State passing game might be minimized as well.  If BYU can pressure Sean Mannion, then they can hold Oregon State to under 350 yards and 27 points.  If not, then Mannion might have a career day.  In the run game, BYU should be able to stifle Oregon State, regardless of what kind of game Mannion has.  So there you have it: rattle the young man, win the game.  Play pass D like they did against SJSU, and lose it.

Prediction
At this point, put no stock in what I say here, because, while I have tended to be on in how the teams matchup,  I seem to stink in putting it all together for a decent prediction.  However, this is a game that BYU should win.  It's a 1-4 team that lost to an FCS school.  It's a passing attack that has thrown twice as many INTs are TDs.  Its passing defense is statistically worse than BYU's.  Its rushing offense is statistically worse than BYU's.  Where BYU has been bad this season, Oregon State has been even worse.  Having to rely on a redshirt freshman to throw over 40 times for over 300 yards is not a good recipe for success, even against BYU.

A typical BYU team would win this game, even on the road, by 14 points fairly easily.  However, nothing has been easy for this BYU team.  If BYU takes care of the football, even if it means settling for field goals in the red zone, BYU wins this game.  I think Riley will protect the ball better and BYU will score more frequently, albeit fewer points than last week.  I think a young Oregon State QB can make enough bad throws for BYU's D to hold up.  BYU 24, Oregon State 20.

What predictions are hanging out there in your minds?