BYU's D vs. TCU's O
One of the keys to the BYU-TCU game over the past three seasons has been turnovers. BYU has turned it over and TCU has benefitted. Could this be the season that BYU flips that around? BYU has 18 takeaways this season, which is tied for 10th in the country. I cannot remember a BYU defense that forced as many turnovers as this one. They have 7 fumble recoveries in 8 games. They have 11 INTs in 8 games. They'll probably need to force one of each this game (I feel a lot more comfortable with the chance of a fumble than an INT). TCU will score some points, even in their two previous defeats they dropped 48 and 33. BYU needs to either use the turnovers to set up scores of their own or prevent TCU from getting points on the other side.
TCU has been very balanced this season, passing for 234 yards/game and rushing for 217. BYU has done well in slowing down opposing run games, with the one exception against Utah State. If TCU can run the ball against BYU, then the Cougars cannot slow down TCU. They MUST stop the run above all else. If TCU runs for 175 or more, then I think that puts BYU is in some trouble. That just opens up the passing game, which has already been pretty good this year, and has some home-run hitters (and BYU has some DBs that like to give up homers). Sophomore Casey Pachall has 17 TDs to just 4 INTs. He has thrown for over 200 yards in 6 of 7 games this year, with the one time he didn't get there being the 69-point blowout win over New Mexico. When he's needed to, he's been able to up the ante and throw for 250 (Baylor) or 300 (SMU). He has shown he can beat you with his arm. BYU's secondary can be prone to give up a lot of yards through the air. If you add 175 rushing yards to the mix, TCU could easily put up 42 points on BYU. In 3 quarters.
With that said, I think BYU has the defense to really thwart the TCU rushing attack this time around. TCU has killed BYU by getting outside or in the open field where they have made BYU's MLBs and Safeties look foolish. MLBs Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree (the guy from Texas who was injured BYU's trip to Austin), and Spencer Hadley have been physical between the tackles and quick to chase down plays to the outside. Speaking of the outside, with Kyle Van Noy (who is having a season to remember in 2011), Jameson Frazier, and Jadon Wagner at OLB, BYU has been keeping opponents contained inside. Now add a healthy Jordan Pendleton to the mix as well, who has likewise been all over the place (except in pass coverage). Plus with the front three of BYU looking as dominant as it has been since that 2006 team that gave up under 15 points per game (and only 17 to TCU), it's hard to imagine TCU getting to its average of 217 yards rushing.
The keys for BYU's defense this game are: force turnovers and stop the run. If BYU can force 2 turnovers and hold TCU to under 175 yards rushing (I'd like to say 150, but I think they could survive up to 175), they should have a chance to win this game. [Of course, if BYU's offense turns it over 2 or 3 (or more) times, per their average, it may not make any difference.] Because if the Cougar D accomplishes that, TCU probably scores less than 31 points, which gives BYU a chance to win the game.
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