Riley and BYU's O vs. SJSU's D
Well, Riley Nelson has officially been named the starting QB for BYU. I think it's a bit of a shame, as Jake Heaps handled the difficult defenses (albeit very poorly in most cases) of the early season. Now Riley gets to come in against one of the worst defenses BYU will see all season.
San Jose State is giving up 186 yards rushing per game, which is a welcome sight for a BYU team coming off its first 200-yard rushing game of the season. Their pass defense is marginally better, giving up 223 yards/game, but it shouldn't put much fear into Nelson and his C-grade arm, especially with the emergence of Cody Hoffman as a big-time catch-making receiver, Marcus Mathews as a legitimate threat at TE, and both RBs (not counting Juice yet) doing a better job running after the catch. Riley should have some success in the pass game, and he'll need to complete a high percentage of passes to open things up for himself and the rest of the rushing attack.
I believe Nelson should be OK, but I think BYU fans expecting the same kind of high-octane offense he led last game will be disappointed. What made Riley so effective last week was his high energy, and that's tough to maintain for four quarters, especially in that second quarter. Riley needs to complete over 65% of his passes in order to keep the ball moving. He could throw for 200 if he does that. The rushing attack should be able to amass another 200-yard game, particularly with Riley Nelson in the game, capable of adding another 50-75 yards of his own on called pass plays.
In short, the offense SHOULD roll, regardless of who is at the QB position. The nice part for BYU fans, if Riley struggles, Heaps will get his chance, and what are the odds, against this defense, that both QBs struggle? As I said earlier in the week, this defense is experienced, so BYU has to execute. I think the WRs get open a little easier, the RBs have a little more rushing room, the OL gets a little more push upfront. We're going to see the BYU offense we've expected all season because this team is just a little bit worse across the board than the previous 5 defenses they have played. I expect at least 6 scoring drives. It's all about how many of those are TDs.
BYU's D vs. SJSU's O
SJSU's offense hasn't struggled quite as much as their defense, but they still don't rank in the top half of FBS in any significant category. They have capable players at the skill positions that can bust a big play at any time. They have an experienced OL, but the problem is, it's the same guys they had last season when they only had 4 100-yard rushing games in 13 games, against a WAC schedule. How they plan on consistently running against BYU's front 7 has to be their biggest concern.
If they can't run, they will have to turn to the passing game. They are experienced, but small. Their WRs are all smaller than FS Travis Uale, their TE is just 10 pounds bigger than SS Daniel Sorensen. Their best chance is to get their slot receivers the ball matched up against LBs, if they can. The biggest weakness for BYU's D is pass coverage. The corners are pretty good to this point, but the safeties and LBs have proven to be fairly poor in the passing game. SJSU must test the middle of the field in the passing game. That is where their big plays are to be found.
I don't think SJSU can get enough of those big plays to keep their team in the game. They should score once or twice, set up by big plays, but I don't them being able to consistently move the ball down the field on BYU's D. A conservative, bend-but-don't-break defensive plan, may prevent SJSU from scoring much at all: if BYU doesn't give up big plays, SJSU won't be able to score.
Prediction
This is just the kind of opponent BYU needs right now, coming off an emotional win where the offense finally moved the ball. BYU should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Riley should able up the big play potential a bit more on offense. And, if they can control the middle of the field in the passing game, the defense should be able to dominate this game from start to finish. BYU 41, San Jose State 10.
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