Thusday Thoughts, 10/27/2011

The 2011 Difference
As BYU fans have been reminded a lot this week, the past three seasons against TCU have been difficult for BYU, being outscored 101-17 in those three games.  There are a few major differences between 2011 and 2008-2010.  First, BYU had a virtual statue in the pocket those three seasons.  Second, BYU couldn't manage anything in the running game.  Third, BYU had a coordinator who believed he could out-execute TCU, so his predictability wouldn't matter (but very much did).  Fourth, TCU had a lights out pass defense that could lock down in man coverage and still bring the blitz without giving up anything big on the back end.  Fifth, TCU had Andy Dalton, who treated this game like his biggest rivalry each year.

Now, Riley Nelson's mobility gives TCU an added threat to worry about, even in passing situations.  BYU has confidence that it can run the ball, with Alisa running like a full-grown man, DiLuigi, Kariya, and Quezada running better, and Riley able to gain yards on the ground on designed runs or by scrambling.  Doman recognizes he'll have to out-flank TCU and take shots down the field (because clearly BYU's personnel on O cannot out-execute TCU's D).  TCU's secondary hasn't been locking anybody down in man coverage, and they don't have dominant pass rushers in the front four, so they will have to blitz to get pressure.  TCU has Casey Pachall, who is no Andy Dalton, at least not yet.  Plus, this wasn't THE biggest game on TCU's schedule in 2011, so they didn't prepare for it all off-season like they have done in the past.  No BYU tackling dummies.  No talk of beating BYU to clinch a conference title.  This is just another non-conference game for them.  Now, it's the big game for BYU.

That's a lot of things that have changed this past year that could swing the scales back in BYU's favor.  However, those scales had a long way to swing before BYU could think of getting a win, after losing by an average of four TDs.

Statistical Anomalies
For the previous forever, TCU has had a top 10 defense.  In fact, the Horned Frogs have been #1 in total defense three of the past four seasons.  This year, however, BYU's 32nd defense comes in at 5 spots higher than TCU's 37th ranked one.  Of course, TCU has played two offenses in the top 11 in the country, including Baylor's 2nd ranked offense.  The best BYU has had to slow down: Utah State, at 27, followed by #48 Oregon State.  So BYU's D looks better because they have played more offensive offenses.

BYU actually leads TCU in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, and passing defense (perhaps there is no more telling statistic than that pass defense to show that TCU's defense is down in 2011: statistically worse than BYU's).  Offensively, the roles are entirely reversed, with TCU leading in total, scoring, rushing, and passing offense, though the margin is much, much wider on the offensive side.

Translation for people that don't love stats as much as I do: BYU has a slightly better defense, on paper, but a much worse offense.  Further translation: they lose if it's a shootout.  They probably won't score enough to keep up with TCU if the game passes the mid-20's.  Their best chance to win is in a game where points are at a premium.  Can they go Big East style and muddy it up to pull it off?  Like I said a few paragraphs ago: it'd take a lot of mud to erase a 34-6 average defeat over three years...

Checking on Mo
Prior to the season, I had TCU at 5-2, or perhaps as bad as 4-3 (I thought they could lose at Air Force or SDSU, and thought they could get one against two in-state teams where they ended up losing both), at this point in the season.  I called for them to go 9-3 or 8-4, with all losses coming in September/October, with the exception of a Boise State loss on November 12th.  I had BYU at 6-2 at this point as well.  I said BYU would lose to Texas, and would lose one of those 50/50 games (Ole Miss, Utah, and UCF, should have included Utah State in that list, but didn't realize how bad Heaps would play).  So, the good news is, my predictions were OK on a season level (game-by-game, not so much).  Bad news is, for Cougar fans, I said that BYU would get handled easily by TCU.

TCU, to start the season, was better on paper than BYU (though I said they were not nearly as good as their pre-season ranking indicated, which is accurate).  TCU is playing almost exactly as I thought they would.  BYU has the same record I thought they would, but got there in a much different way than I imagined.  BYU has looked much better with Riley Nelson at the helm, but this offense is not as good as they should be, or I thought they would be.  Can't lay it on much thicker as to which way I'm leaning.  Thought TCU was better before the season, TCU is playing at the level I thought they would, BYU is playing worse...stay tuned for a more full recap of why I think TCU will win and by how much.  Cougar fans, just trust in the fact that my game predictions have completely sucked and hope for the best!