Boise State at Fresno State
The Broncos showed a little vulnerability last week with a sluggish 'revenge' win against Nevada. It was Kellen Moore's worst statistical game in quite some time. It was the first time Boise State scored less than 31 points since their 26-3 bowl game victory against Utah to end last season. It was the Broncos' lowest point total on the blue turf since their season opening 19-8 win against Oregon in 2009, yes 2.5 seasons ago. The Broncos travel to play the Fresno State Bulldogs, which have, surprisingly, had a horrendous defense in 2011 thus far, usually that is the one thing you can count on with Fresno State. This is Boise State's last chance to show the country what it can do on ESPN, as they enter Mountain West Conference play and disappear from a National Television audience. I suspect they will rebound and play better offensively and show the country they are still Boise State. Tough game though, in a tough environment, against an opponent that knows them very well. Boise State 34, Fresno State 24.
Oklahoma vs. Texas
The Sooners are a better team. They are a more confident team. They have the bigger playmakers. They have the more aggressive defense. But, I tell you what, Texas has been playing with a passion since halftime of the BYU game. Since falling behind 13-0 against BYU in week 2, Texas has outscored opponents 103-37. None of the opponents were anywhere near Oklahoma's abilities but they did that in two road games against BCS conference opponents that are likely to be bowl-bound this season. I wouldn't count Texas out of this one, as most experts do. Texas cannot afford to fall behind by 2 scores in the first half or OU will step on the gas pedal and it could get ugly fast. OU better play hungry or they might find themselves in a dogfight. OU has survived two of those thus far against quality opponents. Texas has only been in one dogfight, though not against a team currently of the caliber of Florida State or Missouri, and survived. Will Texas rise to the occasion in its first real test of the season? With a young set of QBs, I wouldn't put my money on it. Oklahoma 31, Texas 20.
Air Force at Notre Dame
I'd like to call this my upset of the weekend, but I'm not prepared to go there. I think the LBs of Notre Dame are too active for Air Force to consistently drive the ball down the field and consistently convert on third down. Air Force needs to play some risky football to win this one. They need to take a couple of deep shots in the passing game against an average secondary that will likely be playing a lot of man coverage, or at least have guys on islands. They need to go for it on fourth and short. They need to be the aggressor. If they can put the ND LBs on their heels, they have a chance. If Manti Te'o and company are in attack mode from start to finish, Air Force will have a tough time keeping it close. I have also been very disappointed with Air Force's defense this season. I expected them to stop somebody to this point, and, in fact, I thought it would be a really good defense. But two FCS opponents scored 20 and 24 on them. TCU dropped 35 on them in Colorado Springs. Navy got into the 30's, though it required OT to do it. Air Force scheduled two FCS opponents so they could get through this part of the season: this is their second straight road trip east of the Mississippi, and with a Thursday night conference game next week looming. I love the Academy, but not this year, not this game. Notre Dame 34, Air Force 17.
Florida at LSU
A true freshman making his first collegiate start on the road at LSU? After what I saw from him at home against Alabama, I don't have high hopes. Florida's defense may keep them in the game, but the frosh is going to have to make some plays and keep the time of possession battle close. No chance of that happening. LSU 31, Florida 13. And I'm being generous to Florida, I think. If it weren't for LSU's inability to stay interested for four quarters on offense, this game it'd be a blowout.
Mizzou at Kansas State
I'm not completely sold on K-State yet. They eked out a win against FCS Eastern Kentucky in Week One. They did get a solid win on the road at Miami (a team that is on the verge of imploding). They beat Robert Griffin III, but 22 on 1 is hardly a fair fight. And it even took a miraculous comeback to get that done. At home. Missouri is 0-2 on the road, but they did have a bye week to get ready for this game. In the current age of the Big XII, he with the better passing game triumphs. Mizzou has that. In a surprisingly low-scoring affair, Missouri 27, Kansas State 20.
Auburn at Arkansas
How do these two follow last season's touchdown fest? Well, while this won't be quite as high-scoring (65-43), I do expect plenty of fireworks from both sides. Auburn did show that it wasn't all about their offense as they held Mr. Hyde South Carolina to 13 points in a grind it out 16-13 win last week. However, this week it's back to the high-flying theatrics. I like Arkansas at home, paying the Tigers back for the 65 they dropped on The Plains last season. Arkansas 45, Auburn 31.
Michigan 42, Northwestern 27. The Wildcats broke my heart last weekend. I'm not sure they recover in time for this game. Michigan WALKS to a 11-1 record or better. I'm not saying they're not a top 25 team, but they're not a top 10 team, and that's where they'll be by season's end in this WEAK Big Ten. They play 8 home games (this weekend is the first). Their toughest road game is at Illinois, and does anybody actually think the Illini are for real? Their 3 games outside of the state of Michigan: at Northwestern, at Iowa, at Illinois. Hoke should thank his predecessor for the cake-walk schedule and somewhat talented team he walked into.
Wisconsin is on the same track: only 4 road games, toughest one at Illinois. Their biggest win all season will be against a vastly overrated Nebraska team. Wisconsin at 12-0/11-1, Michigan at 11-1 in the Big Ten Title game. Wisconsin wins and goes to the Rose Bowl (it better not be a National Championship Game appearance on the line, are you kidding me with that schedule? Is that really better than Boise State's by that much? Talk crap about the MWC all you want, but I'll take 6 road games over 4 any day of the week. And UNLV, Oregon State, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota? Give me a break).
Tennessee 28, Georgia 21. This should be a good game, with Georgia playing good ball of late and Tennesse having a lot of success at home this season.
Texas A&M at Texas Tech
I have a friend that is a big Aggie fan. Besides beating Texas, all she wants in life is a Win in Lubbock for Texas A&M. She got that wish in 2009, but prior to that, A&M lost 7 straight at Texas Tech. They always struggle, even when the Aggies are clearly better. After second half collapses led to two straight defeats, it's tough to determine where their heads are going to be. I like Tuberville's Red Raiders, they have three big wins with only one struggle game thus far. A&M is 2-2, and if they were mentally tough they'd be 4-0 in knocking on the door of the top 5. They are not mentally tough, and it will show in Lubbock as they get upset by Texas Tech. Texas Tech 38, Texas A&M 27.
Stanford 52, Colorado 17. Pac 12's new additions 0-6 against the former Pac 10 teams? Could happen with Utah limping into a home game against Arizona State (my preview of that game to come under separate cover).
Nebraska 27, Ohio State 13.
Wyoming at Utah State
This is a big game for the Aggies. They MUST win this game. If they drop to 1-4, their chances of going to a bowl game are very slim with at least two losses left on the schedule. Utah State has had "signature wins" or at least near-wins each season under Gary Andersen. But they never seem to follow that up with anything substantial. They tend to start the season with promise, and collapse as October gets started. They nearly beat defending National Champion Auburn on the road to open the season. Then they follow that up with a loss at home to Colorado State (coming off a bye, no less) and an excruciatingly close loss at BYU. Wyoming has quietly, and I mean very quietly, gone 3-1, with two wins against FCS opponents. They played one good team at home and lost big, they played one not completely mediocre team on the road and eked out a one-point win. Here they get another not completely mediocre team on the road. But this team is desperate and the Aggies get it done. Utah State 37, Wyoming 27.
TCU at San Diego State
The Horned Frogs have struggled mightily on defense. Problem is: their biggest struggles are against the pass. SDSU doesn't have the horses in the passing game for me to call this upset. I like SDSU's chances, and I may flip on this game before 8:30pm Mountain Time on Saturday night, but right now, I like TCU's balanced attack and their ability to slow down SDSU's running game enough to come out on top on Montezuma Mesa. TCU 31, SDSU 24.
Any other games this weekend that you want me to look into my crystal ball for? Georgia Tech, Florida State, Ball State, Illinois, Pitt, OK State, Penn State, Virginia Tech are all winners this weekend in my book. I like Navy in a good game against Southern Miss, same with Baylor over Iowa State and Washington State over UCLA. If there ever was a Saturday in the fall to go fishing or watch the MLB Playoffs (congrats, Detroit, well played game tonight) instead of spending the day watching college football or tracking scores or calling me for updates, this is probably it. After 12 upsets in the "major" games and several mammoth fourth-quarter collapses last weekend, I expect to see a lot of favorites taking care of business, and in relatively convincing fashion, this weekend.
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