Last summer, as Boise State prepared to join the MWC as its 10th member, if I would have heard BYU would be in discussions with the Big XII for membership, I would have thought it was a no-brainer. Perhaps it still is. However, I have listened to Tom Holmoe, Bronco Mendenhall, and even President Samuelson very closely over the past year. They have laid out three main reasons for Independence (and I'll add a fourth): exposure to the nation, access for the fans, and a national schedule (and I add, money).
Exposure
BYU has all the exposure it could possibly want right now. After being essentially invisible for the previous 4 seasons, BYU has played on ESPN once and ESPN2 twice in its first three games. Their first three games have all been discussed on College Gameday, the premier preview show for college football. Their next two games are Friday night games on ESPN. They have an additional ESPN Friday night game at the end of October against what should be a ranked TCU squad. Their final regular season game will be at Hawaii on ESPN2. At least 3 other games will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU. One game will be on BYUTV and available online at byutv.org. If BYU joins the Big XII, they will not be on ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU virtually every week (10/11 of 12 games this season).
If anything, BYU's exposure actually decreases with a jump to the Big XII. The biggest plus on the exposure side of things: BYU would have more high profile games later in the season. Right now the November and December schedule includes Idaho, New Mexico State, and Hawaii. If BYU puts a quality product on the field, imagine how much hype a late season game against Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, or Oklahoma would have. However, is that positive outweighed by the fact that BYU would lose its opportunity to show college football nation what the Church is all about through broadcasts on BYU-TV? Exposure isn't just about the football team, it is about the Church.
Access
Access for fans, with all of this exposure, is easy. Simply tune in to ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU (or ESPN3.com if you have it). Go to byutv.org or watch BYUTV for a replay of the game, usually shown within 24 hours of the live, original broadcast. Would BYU be able to maintain that same access for fans in the Big XII? How many games will go from ESPN2 to Fox Regional Sports (which usually requires a third upgrade of your cable or satellite package)? Will BYU-TV keep its current rebroadcast rights? Isn't this too similar to the Longhorn Network that has everyone in the Big XII in a tissy? If BYU were able to negotiate the same BYU-TV rebroadcast rights (and broadcast rights for Olympic sports), this would keep access the same for its fans. If not, it's a bad deal for BYU, especially if multiple football games a season end up on regional networks without BYU-TV replays.
Schedule
So far this season, BYU has played in the Southeast and the Southwest, in addition to having a home game against a Pac 12 opponent. BYU will still travel to Hawaii, Oregon, and back to Texas before this season is done. Next year, BYU will play in Idaho, California, New Mexico, Indiana, and Georgia. If BYU were to join the Big XII, they would get a lot of games in Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, and Texas, along with 3 non-conference games a season (most years, BYU would probably opt for two home and one road non-conference games). That essentially leaves one solitary opportunity for BYU to travel to the South, the Midwest, or the West Coast, and they will probably never get to the Northeast. Their ability to get out and play in new places in front of tens of thousands of fans that rarely ever get to see the Cougars play is greatly diminished.
BYU has had some trouble scheduling opponents to this point. They have yet to complete the 2012 schedule. There are still multiple openings in 2013 and beyond. But BYU does have a lot of games scheduled those years already. If BYU were to join the Big XII for 2012, they would have to renege on at least 7 of their 11 contracted games for 2012, 4 of their 8 in 2013, and 5 of their 9 in 2014. That's 15 games, and probably at least 13 schools, that BYU would have to bail on over the next three seasons. That doesn't exactly give BYU the best reputation.
Money
BYU's income with the MWC for television revenue was $1.2 Million per season, which may seem like a decent chunk. Consider now that BYU, between its football and basketball contracts with ESPN, stands to make somewhere between $8-$12 Million per season. BYU's income has shot through the roof. Plus, BYU can make money through BYU-TV as it airs live Olympic sports and rebroadcasts of football games. All told, BYU probably caps out at about $12-$13 Million in television revenue per year. The Big XII contract would probably pay BYU somewhere in the neighborhood of $13-$15 Million. So the money is a step up. BYU would also receive roughly $2 Million per year because of their BCS conference membership (even if they go 0-12). The money is a significant bump, probably about $5 Million each year.
Access to the BCS
As part of a BCS conference, BYU would have "easier" access to a BCS game because they wouldn't have to go undefeated. However, they would have to win the Big XII. BYU would have to go 3-1 against Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State (with at least one of those games on the road). Plus they would have to defeat Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Baylor (with at least 2 of those being on the road). It doesn't stand to reason that BYU would have much chance of doing that more than once a decade (i.e. winning at least 3 road games against BCS opponents and totally hold serve at home, where they have lost at least one game each of the last three seasons by four TDs or more). So it doesn't get "easier" for BYU to get to a BCS game, it just means they can get there without having to be 12-0. Instead they would have to be 10-2 against a much harder schedule.
No, We Can't
If BYU joins the Big XII, after everything that they have said the past 13 months, I am not sure I could support the move. On one hand, it would be difficult to pass up an invitation to a BCS conference, especially for basketball, baseball, and the Olympic sports. However, if Independence in football is about exposure, access, and playing a national football schedule, BYU can't do better than it is right now. If being in the West Coast Conference for its other sports is about being with like-minded individuals who hold similar core values and principles, BYU can't do better than it is right now. I would further argue that BYU cannot claim to support those values and principles if they abandon the WCC and Independence right now.
BYU should ride out the storm right where it is. Independence is blYss!
Let me start by saying I agree with every point you have said about staying independent. My question is: If we keep playing terribly isn't that bad for our independence? I don't think we will always be this bad but there has to be a decent group of people laughing at us for all the national championship talk we do in the offseason and then perform the way we have. I feel like being in the Big XII at least gives us some protection in the respect category because if we lose they at least respect the schedule. I like independence if we had come out strong this year, mentally and physically, but the poor performance will all of the hype is slightly embarrassing to me. I would like to know what you think! Don't get me wrong, I love my cougars and for now independence but I would like to see our team man up a bit. Woa, long comment sorry!
ReplyDeleteNo, absolutely, BYU needs to be better than they were last week if Independence is going to work. Not all exposure is good exposure. The Big XII has other positives, certainly. But BYU's reasons for Independence are supposedly bigger than what the Big XII could offer.
ReplyDelete