Crossing the 50
Riley Nelson led the BYU offense into Oregon State territory 9 times, including 6 in the second half. In the 1st and 4th quarters, BYU was 4 for 4 with 4 TDs. In the 2nd quarter they had just one possession, which resulted in a blocked field goal. In the 3rd quarter, they had a TD, a missed field goal, a punt, and a made field goal. They scored on 6 possessions, 5 TDs and 1 Field Goal made. This is a lot more like a typical BYU football team than it ever really was under Jake Heaps (excluding a few games last season when the competition level was extremely poor). At least, the numbers are more similar to the success on offense that BYU experienced under Max Hall and John Beck. For reasons stated below, I would expect this success to continue for the last 5 games, including TCU to some degree.
BYU's Opponents
While I give a lot of props to Riley Nelson for his command of the team, he hasn't had to face a really stiff defensive test yet. He did face a Utah State team that is ranked 29th in total defense, just behind Oklahoma, but their strength of schedule is 86th, which helps their cause. San Jose State is 92nd in total defense (strength of schedule 49). Oregon State is the 65th ranked total defense (SOS 35). Idaho State is the 103rd ranked defense. In FCS.
Riley should theoretically have a stiffer test upcoming against TCU, but statistically speaking, TCU is just 69th in total defense (SOS 50). Idaho and New Mexico State are 100th and 93rd, respectively, while playing schedules ranked 102nd and 141st, respectively. Hawaii ranks 27th in total defense, while playing the 107th ranked schedule. So really, Utah State and Oregon State might be the toughest tests for Nelson and he passed with flying colors. I guess that means at least 38 points should be expected for the rest of the season.
By contrast, Heaps saw the 86th defense (SOS 27), 24th defense (SOS 4), 54th defense (SOS 9), and 2nd defense (SOS 99). I offer the comparison, not to get back on the Heaps train, but to remind the blue-goggled that Riley's successes haven't come against any good defenses. The good news is: he won't face any the rest of the season, including the bowl game. Heaps dispatched those for him, with a 2-2 record. BYU should still be able to push forward to at least 9-3, with a bowl game against a lesser opponent. Now just imagine if Doman had made the QB change in the second half at Texas instead of Utah State.
Scheduling Update
If you haven't heard, BYU added a two-game series with Washington State. Wazu will travel to Provo in 2012 and BYU to Pullman in 2013. Bronco said he'd like to continue playing Pac 12 teams, and here comes another series there. I anticipate the game will be played September 29th, 2012, or a game will be moved (Weber State) in early September to make room for the Pac 12's supposedly rigid stance of playing all non-conference games in the first three weeks of the season (BYU also plays Oregon State in October, so it continues to be only rigid where Utah is concerned). No official date was announced for either game yet. That leaves 3 games left (or 4 if BYU chooses to play a 13th game) for 2013. The home schedule includes Texas, Utah, Georgia Tech, and Boise State. Road games are at Hawaii, Utah State, Houston, Notre Dame, and Washington State. Anybody missing the Mountain West (or the MWCUSA)?
As discussions with the Big 12 are supposedly taking place, BYU continues to take steps that would indicate they aren't moving any closer to joining. If BYU were "about to join the Big 12" I don't think they would be adding more non-Big 12 games to the already crowded future schedule. BYU is going to give Independence a real shot. I am excited for that personally, though I know many of you just want to see BYU in a BCS conference.
Merger
I love what the MWC and CUSA did with their merger. It just makes me so happy. That BYU got out while they could! When they were in discussions about that nonsense it was just that: nonsense. Now that it's reality, it becomes even more ludicrous. How Craig Thompson and MWC Presidents feel that will help their chances with the BCS is beyond me. All it does is add one more obstacle for their non-BCS league champion to go undefeated and get a BCS bid. Putting UNLV and Tulane in the same conference cannot possibly improve a conference's BCS chances.
The 22-team (probably going to end up being just 18 in the end, I would guess) conglomerate doesn't add revenue, it doesn't improve quality, and it doesn't help MWC teams in any way. If they did it to survive, great. But the fact that they attach this "we should definitely get a BCS bid now" thing is a joke. That isn't a BCS league. And it's less likely to provide a champion ranked in the top 12 to get an automatic berth to a BCS game. It did open up the door for BYU though, should they ever put together an 11-1 or 12-0 season: there is one less conference to compete with for a BCS bid. The past few years, and projecting forward, the MWC champ was almost assured to get a BCS bid, now that becomes much more difficult for them with a conference championship game. Boise State is the only team with the cache to make it work, and BYU plays them head-to-head for the next 12 years! Win that game, and 10 others, and BYU is probably in...thanks, MWC!
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