BYU-TCU Preview, Part III, 10/28/2011

Prediction
Well, in the previous two posts, I tried to point out what BYU will have to do to win this game.  Now, I'm going to tell you why they won't win it (fear not, I'm about 0-for-the-season in picking how BYU games actually turn out, so I may very well be wrong again).  The great BYU teams seem to set up one year in advance (and I've said repeatedly that I think BYU in 2012 is going to be one of those teams.).  There seem to be some mental hurdles that BYU struggles to overcome until the year where they finally put it all together.  This game against TCU is going to be one of those hurdles that this not great BYU team doesn't overcome.

If BYU doesn't go gangbusters right out of the gate, after what's happened against TCU the last three seasons, you could see the Utah game all over again.  With teams that have certain struggles, there is kind of a "here we go again" thing that sets in when problems arise, which has been especially true of BYU the past few seasons.  With Heaps at QB, there was nobody to rally the troops and say "no we don't" that could back it up with their play.  Perhaps Nelson changes that.  But an early deficit or turnover, and I could see the game getting out of hand quickly.

I don't like BYU's chances in a shootout against TCU.  I think, ultimately, this is the game where Riley's arm holds BYU back.  He has got to be very good.  He needs to be precise.  He can't turn the ball over.  But his guys aren't going to be as open as they have been the previous four games.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 50% for the game.  He will probably make a few phenomenal plays, both in the running and passing game.  But it will take four quarters of excellence to beat TCU, and I don't think he is capable of it yet.  He is playing better than I anticipated he would, but he's no Tim Tebow...

I do think BYU competes in this game for 3 quarters, and perhaps even for 4, but I believe that TCU is the superior team at this point (and they are certainly a superior program at this point in history).  BYU is certainly more used to the Friday night game, and that may give them an edge.  They have Riley Nelson, and he may give them an edge.  I think the game will play closer than the 15-point spread (though the final score may not indicate that when the clock finally hits 0:00), but TCU's O is going to be just a little too much for the BYU O to keep up with.  TCU 34, BYU 24.

What do you all predict for this game?  And no predicting that I'm wrong: that's too easy.  Every week I come on and give you some analysis and insight, and then throw my prediction out there for everyone to see.  I'm not even asking for any thoughts, just a score!