BYU's O vs. TCU's D
Over the past few seasons, few defenses in the country have been more dominant than TCU's. This domination has been very apparent when the Horned Frogs played TCU. The blueprint is the same for this year's version, though the results haven't been quite the same thus far. But don't get me wrong: this is still a very good TCU defense, ranking in the top 40 in almost every major statistical category (INTs are down this year, which is important for BYU). Their strengths match up well against BYU's weaknesses: aggressive play-calling and man coverage.
TCU plays with 8 or 9 in the box and guys are looking to immediately get behind the line of scrimmage. The way to counteract that is to throw delayed screens (I don't think BYU has any of these in the playbook though) or to run between the tackles, behind a fullback, which Anae seemed scared to do the past three seasons. Instead Anae attempted to run off-tackle or outside, or without a fullback, and got killed by TCU's speed and aggression at DE, LB, and Safety. BYU needs to run a lot of isolation plays right on the butt of the guard. The backside tackle needs to get a hand on the DE to prevent him from chasing the play from behind (three years ago, BYU ran this play on 4th down but Unga was tackled by a fast, aggressive, back-side DE and the momentum changed from there for three straight seasons). The Iso play needs to be successful, because BYU's best chance in the passing game comes from the play-action off of that.
In the passing game. TCU has been able to play bump-n-run, cover 1, man against BYU and pretty much completely shut down the passing attack. That means the CBs play at the line of scrimmage, push the WR off the line of scrimmage and stay in man coverage, with just a single Safety back to help. The WRs couldn't get open. The timing routes were thrown off. TCU could commit 5-7 players to getting after the QB and did that a lot. As a result, nothing went right (2010, Heaps was 14/30 for 90 yards with 2 INTs; 2009, Hall was 18/28 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 2008, Hall was 22/42 for 274 yards and 2 INTs). Completion % was low, yards per catch were low, and INTs were consistent, which is to say nothing of the sacks TCU got. Granted, a lot of teams struggled against TCU, but Hall was over 30 and 100 yards below his season averages in his two games in '08 and '09 and Heaps was nearly 90 below last year.
It wasn't just poor play-calling and poor QB play, though it was that too. The WRs couldn't get off their guys. This year, the TCU DBs aren't as good. BYU has two big, physical WRs (though Apo has clearly shown some "rust" after get blown up on a few big hits this season). Can they get open DOWN THE FIELD and punish TCU for playing risky defense? That is the key to this game, and something BYU has struggled with against all "man-first" defenses they have faced in the Mendenhall era (except with Austin Collie and when TEs have been heavily involved).
BYU will get some on the ground. The right side of the O-Line is playing phenomenal right now. With Mendenhall leading the way and Alisa, Quezada, and Kariya putting their heads down and getting yards on the ground, BYU will have a decent enough ground attack. Cody Hoffman must either make some big plays, or draw enough attention that Jacobson, Apo, or one of the TEs can make them in single coverage on the opposite side. BYU can compete with TCU with just a ground game this season. But they can't beat TCU without a passing game.
Lost in the 5-game winning streak (which I don't think warrants BYU to be receiving votes in the polls as they are, but that's a story for another day), is that Riley Nelson has been about a 60% passer, against much worse defenses than TCU. That is not very good for a BYU QB. Max Hall was over 65% for his career, but saw over 7% taken off of that when playing against TCU. If Riley experiences a similar drop, he's going to be just over 50% for this game. [Oh, and Max Hall was a better QB than Nelson.] Hall's yards/completion dropped over 3 yards against TCU vs. the rest of the teams he played against. If Riley isn't going for over 10 yards/completion, BYU's passing game will be in trouble. At some point, they'll need the passing game to work to open up the running game.
Riley can extend plays and drives with his ability to run, and make throws on the run. But BYU fans have to wonder: is this the game where his arm costs him? He can't squeeze the ball in tight windows against fast DBs. He has to play like an NFL QB this game: anticipate the WRs getting open and throwing it where they should be. Then it's up to BYU's WRs to get there. I think that'll be a struggle. Hoffman is about the only guy I see that can do it. Maybe Apo and Austin Holt man up, with another chance to play in their home state of Texas this week.
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