BYU's O vs. Idaho State's D
The BYU Offensive Line has a mammoth size advantage over the Bengals front seven (4-3 defense). In fact, Bryan Kariya would be the 4th biggest player in Idaho State's front 7. BYU averages over 6'4" and over 300 pounds on the OL. Idaho State is 6'2" 240 pounds in their front 4, with only two players in the rotation over 270 pounds (and they never play at the same time). I suspect BYU will employ a steady dose of Alisa, Kariya, and Quezada between the tackles. Even DiLuigi could run between the tackles this game, though I imagine he'll see a few swing passes off of play-action.
BYU probably wants to establish a rhythm in the passing game, but I imagine they won't show anything new this week, not wanting to tip their hand to TCU at all next week. I expect big production out of the running game: 250+ yards, 5.5+ yards/carry.
The passing game should be uber-efficient. If Nelson isn't 65-70% on his passes, he is having a bad day. Idaho State is going to have to sell out to stop the run. There should be a lot of single coverage on the outside. Jacobson, Falslev, the Tight Ends, and even DiLuigi should get a lot of mismatches with safeties and LBs. The play-action game should be clicking. There isn't much of a pass-rush to worry about: Idaho State is averaging just under 2 sacks per game, against FCS offensive lines.
BYU probably won't pass the ball much, I would be shocked to see 20 pass attempts this game, but they should be successful. The yards per attempt and completion should skyrocket. If BYU doesn't move the ball in bunches and cross the 50-yard line just about every possession, then there are bigger issues than we thought. I expect at least 5 TDs, if not 6-8 against this undermanned defense.
BYU's D vs. Idaho State's O
Idaho State would have a tough time running the ball against BYU, but that isn't their forte either. BYU's front 3 averages about 10 pounds per man on the Bengal OL. Where Idaho State would have an advantage in the running game is the small shifty backs: the big DL may have a tough time corralling them.
That's not what Idaho State does anyway: they are all about the hurry up passing attack. They throw 3 times for every 1 rushing attempt (adjusting for sacks). They complete 63% of their passes for 10.5 yards/reception. In the passing game: they are strong where BYU is weak. However, third downs, another weakness for BYU's D, is also a big weakness for Idaho State who converts only 35% of its third downs. Something has to give.
Idaho State will probably get its share of yards through the air. My guess is around 225-250 for the game. I truly believe BYU can limit them to less than 25 yards rushing, especially with them giving up 6 sacks per game. For the game, I don't think ISU should get to 300 total yards, unless the passing game gets a bit more done than I give them credit for. Idaho State should have a difficult time putting the ball in the end zone once they get close. The DBs are "forced" to play closer than 12 yards off and that might make it more difficult than the pitch and catch they can play up and down the field.
Prediction
Idaho State is a bad FCS team. BYU is a decent FBS team. BYU should run all over them. If they can stop the passing attack of Idaho State at all, it will be over in the first 20 minutes of the game. BYU gets a much needed confidence boost heading into the big game against TCU next week. Cougars 48, Bengals 12
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