Back Online

I'm sure you have all been anxiously awaiting my next post ever since BYU's loss to TCU.  Well, I am sorry to disappoint, but I'm back now.  Today at least.  I leave for New Hampshire in about 2 hours and won't be able to get anything else out for you guys until at least Wednesday night.  So, now some thoughts.

TCU Recap
BYU just can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes.  Like Boomer pointed out, Nelson (and BYU as a whole) has been mistake prone, but they have been playing against inferior opponents that couldn't take advantage of it.  Texas, Utah, and TCU were all good enough.  Ole Miss almost was.  As were Central Florida and Utah State.  Hence the 6-3 record (with only one more game against a team that MIGHT be good enough in Hawaii).  Against Utah and TCU, BYU spotted them big leads.  With Heaps, BYU couldn't even come close to making the come back, and it spiraled out of control and got worse.  With Nelson, BYU was one bogus personal foul call away from having a legitimate chance to complete the come back.

Regardless, BYU cannot give away big leads to anybody.  It only looks worse when BYU does it on the big stage against good opponents.  BYU outplayed TCU for most of the game.  The first and last five minutes of the first half continue to kill BYU.  Right now, BYU is an average team with potential to be a good team.  I believe next year, with everything BYU has coming back on both sides of the ball, BYU SHOULD be a good team, with potential to be a great team.  But, mentally, there has been something amiss with BYU since Max Hall left.  I think they lost so many seniors, that the guys who have played the last two years just don't know what it takes to be good.  They don't know how to play within themselves.  They don't know how to get out of their own way and just play football.  They clearly can compete, having done so against all odds at Texas and against TCU.

Boise State vs. Alabama
Right now, Alabama holds a slight lead against Boise State in the polls and computers, which adds up to a decent lead in the BCS standings.  Can they catch Alabama?  I know I'm alone in this, but looking at the numbers and remaining schedule, they can be close enough in the computers to put the onus on the voters.

Right now, Alabama's best win is Arkansas at home.  Boise State played Georgia on a neutral site.  Slight edge to Bama (Boise gets more credit for a non-home win, so the difference in computer rankings nearly evens out).  But if Arkansas loses again (say at LSU for example) and Georgia continues to win and gets a shot in the SEC Title Game, that can change.  Bama's next best win is against Penn State, which looks good right now.  Except that Penn State will lose two more games this season.  Tulsa is actually a very strong computer opponent, ranking in the low 20's.  Tulsa should win its next two games before a showdown Thanksgiving Weekend against what might be a top 10 Houston team.  The win over Tulsa may end up being a stronger computer resume game for Boise than Bama's win at Penn State.  Crazy, I know, but true.  As far as the rest of the already played schedule goes, it's only a slight edge to Bama, because Bama actually got a reasonably easy road through the SEC this season.  If you look at the overall computer rankings, Bama only leads Boise State by 5%, so the schedule advantage goes to Bama, but it's closer than you might think.  It helps that Georgia leads the SEC East, Toledo is playing well, and Nevada looks almost equivalent in the computers to Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

Looking ahead to future games, Boise State plays TCU at home and Bama travels to Mississippi State.  These are essentially equivalent games.  The following week, Bama plays Georgia Southern while Boise travels to San Diego State.  This might be the week where Boise State pulls even with, or maybe even ahead of, Bama.  Then things really get interesting.  Bama goes to Auburn, which is clearly better than either of Boise State's final two games.  However, Boise State getting two wins, regardless of how "bad" they are, against Bama only getting one win is an interesting thing to watch.

Again, I don't think Boise State can pass Bama in the computer polls.  So the voters will have to decide.  Bama's lead will be close enough that it really will be up to voters, and I think Boise State would shoot over Bama the last weekend if it comes down to it.  I watched that whole freaking game on Saturday night: I do NOT want to see a rematch of that ugly, mistake-filled game.  I can watch a replay of BYU-TCU for that.

Of course, this only matters if two of the LSU, OK State, and Stanford trio lose.  LSU's biggest threat is the SEC Championship Game against Georgia.  OK State has to play an Oklahoma team that just lost its leading rushing and receiver in the past two weeks.  Stanford is dinged up and has to play Oregon this week, but that is really its last test.

The other BCS item of any real debate: what happens if Boise State and Houston are both undefeated?  Does a 13-0 Houston team get a shot, when its only win against a ranked opponent will come against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA Title game?

Heaps Going Forward
I think Nelson's mistakes have been overlooked b/c he is at least moving the ball and scoring some points.  Heaps biggest problem was the number of three and outs.  His completion percentage was around 50%, which won't move the chains when the play calls go pass, run, pass.  He can't make up for his 50% in any way.  Nelson can.  Therefore, as long as he doesn't turn it over, BYU has a good chance to get at least one first down.

I don't see Heaps transfering, though there are "rumors" he might, which were started by random people on the internet.  I will not perpetuate that myth.  I don't believe Heaps has put ANY thought into that at this point, so for someone to claim to have "inside knowledge" into what Heaps is thinking is ridiculous.  Maybe after the season he might consider it, but if he has been thinking about it mid-season, I don't want him QB-ing for BYU anyway, let him go.  I don't believe he has been though.  In his mind, I think he feels he has a very good chance to get back in this thing.  With how much Riley runs, it could be Heaps' team again two plays into the next game!

What I could see happening though is Heaps redshirting next season.  I believe James Lark is probably a very decent back-up QB.  Why not give him a shot at that next season and not "waste" an entire year for Heaps?  Give Heaps a chance at the starting job for two years in 2013 and 2014.