Big, But Winnable, Test
Before the season started, I figured this game would be one of BYU's two biggest tests early in the year. They lost by double digits to Wisconsin in the first one. (I also figured BYU would lose to Utah State, but I didn't see it as a test, really. The first game of the year was going to be tough regardless, with all of the new faces around Provo this season.) But I always thought Baylor was a winnable game for BYU. However, that was before Baylor ran off to an undefeated start and top ten ranking. Have my feelings changed about this game? No. BYU could win this game.
Baylor Untested
Baylor is one of 8 undefeated teams left in college basketball. 6 of the 8 teams are ranked in the top 35 in RPI (which is a combination of record and strength of schedule), and 7 of the 8 are in the top 50. Baylor is number 64. Translation: Baylor hasn't played anybody. They have played 1 road game vs. 7 home games. They have played only two teams that will have ANY consideration to make the NCAA Tournament (and I don't really think either SDSU or Northwestern has much shot at an at-large NCAA Tourney berth). There are probably 40-50 teams in college basketball that would be 8-0 with Baylor's schedule, including BYU, in my opinion. The game at BYU is the biggest test Baylor will have in non-conference play (though they have a home game against St. Mary's which may prove to be a bigger one, except that it's at home vs. on the road). With the state of the Big XII right now, excluding two games against Kansas and the games at K-State/Mizzou, this may be Baylor's biggest test all season.
Quick Look at 2011-2012 Cougars
BYU has a nice mix of talent and experience. They bring solid inside presence and outside scoring ability. They rebound, they defend, they get out in transition. They play fast, and they do it with attitude at altitude, in front of 22,000+ fans. If Davies and Hartsock are working inside, the guards are hitting threes outside, Abouo is penetrating, and the team is running, they are hard to stop. And they can get the crowd in the game. With a nice mix of zone and man-to-man, their defense can cause problems for teams that prefer half-court sets.
No More Mr. Rogers
Stephen Rogers, experienced wing man, has been declared out for the game. His presence will be missed. He has played in front of bigs crowd and hit big shots against in big games. Hartsock and Abouo are the only other Cougars that can say that, but they aren't nearly as accurate as Rogers. While he isn't a great defender by any means, he does give some length on the side of BYU's 2-3 zone that can't be replaced.
Why Baylor Will Win
Rebounding. When BYU faces up against top tier teams, the biggest struggle for BYU is not getting stops, it's keeping teams stopped. Baylor is a great offensive rebounding team, averaging over 11 offensive rebounds/game, and BYU gives up 10 offensive rebounds/game. Look out for that. The other thing to consider is the atmosphere: BYU is bringing a sellout crowd. However, for a lot of BYU's younger players, this is our their first rodeo in that type of game. Does the energy get to the young Cougars? I think it might. We might see an uncharacteristic number of airballs early in the game from the young bucks. BYU will play 4-5 freshmen tonight. Baylor will counter with only one seeing significant minutes. Most of Baylor's go-to players have played in tough venues before and will be less rattled by the energy than the young Cougars.
Why BYU Will Win
They have 22,000 rabid fans backing them up, including one of the top 10 student sections in America. Both teams like to run, but BYU has the altitude advantage. While Baylor is busy sucking wind, BYU will be able to get to the offensive glass with Abouo, Davies, and Hartsock. If PJIII picks up early fouls against Davies, Hartsock, or a driving Abouo, can Baylor put up enough points to beat the Cougars? If Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip (their sharp-shooters) can't find their legs at 4,200 feet and hit threes at a ridiculous 60% and 40% ratio, respectively, can PJIII carry the load all by himself inside? What happens if they aren't hitting threes AND PJIII has foul trouble? They could get blown out. BYU has more size inside than Baylor has seen and certainly more scoring ability down there. Baylor digs a deep hole that they don't have the wind to come back from. It is certainly within the realm of possibilities. Better, deeper teams have come into Provo and left with an L than this Baylor team.
Mo Predicts
This is a winnable game for BYU. However, I think their lack of experience costs them early in this game. I think any early hole will be impossible for BYU to overcome, and they have a tendency for slow starts early this year. Carlino will be playing in his first game as a Cougar (though I'd be surprised if he played more than 10-15 minutes), which could disrupt the flow of the offense, which has really struggled already in 3 games thus far this season, including the most recent game at Utah. It's a big game, and without a Jimmer on the floor, I think this becomes that typical BYU team that competes with, but doesn't beat, really good teams. Baylor is really good. BYU is good, better than I thought they would be at this point. Baylor 76, BYU 68.
No comments:
Post a Comment