The much-anticipated start of West Coast Conference play has now arrived for the Cougars. BYU travels to St. Mary's to take on the Gaels. It is kind of a dichotomy of styles, one that probably favors the home team, especially considering BYU's woes away from home. BYU likes to get out and run in transition, while St. Mary's prefers the halfcourt sets. Fast vs. Slow. I am interested to see how those two things coexist at McKeon Pavilion.
BYU's Advantage
The Cougars should be able to control the glass against the Gaels. That is by far, I believe, their biggest advantage. St Mary's only has one player taking down more than 5 boards per game, 6'6" Senior Forward Rob Jones. He will most likely be Hartsock's matchup most of the game, which is a matchup BYU has to like on both ends of the court. If Jones is neutralized by Hartsock, then Davies, Abouo, and Zylstra should be able to clean up the rest of the boards.
At home, I anticipate that the Gaels will limit BYU's transition opportunities. BYU also has been woefully pathetic at shooting from the outside away from the Marriott Center, so they'll need an assertive Brandon Davies, and Hartsock continuing his recent hot streak couldn't hurt either. Away from home, BYU averages just 70.2 points/game (61.5 ppg in true road games compared to 86.6 ppg at home). BYU must turn its advantage on the glass into second chance points and fast breaks.
St. Mary's Advantage
The Gaels offense is much more comfortable in the halfcourt set than BYU's defense is. St. Mary's would prefer a slow pace and will try to beat BYU in the halfcourt. With the home crowd behind them, they should be able to do that. The Gael's shoot about 40% from three at home, compared to BYU's 29% on the road. If they can slow the game down and hit threes in the halfcourt, there won't be any rebounds for BYU to get. BYU doesn't really have a lock down defender to keep St. Mary's out of the lane either, especially late in the shot clock. And with that three-point shooting ability at home, they may not be able to afford to go to the zone either.
Other Items at Play
BYU's rotation will shrink decisively this game. I think Coach Rose will likely only play 7 guys for any extended period of time. With so many games played by the Cougars in so few days, BYU needs to put the game away early so that doesn't come back to bite them.
St. Mary's hasn't really played a big-time opponent at home yet this season (I'm still not sold on Northern Iowa). How will the environment impact their two young guards? Of course, the same could be said on the flip-side for BYU. Carlino has never played a road game in college, Cusick is a former walk-on (and former Ute), and I'm not sure Harrison cracks that top 7 that will see the floor. Now Carlino and Cusick both played well in a big-time environment against Baylor, but the crowd was for them, not against. And McKeon Pavilion is more like a high school gym than the college ones BYU has been used to. The crowd is right on top of you, in your face, and the sound echoes in such tight quarters. Its 3,500 fans seem a lot more like 13,500. Having watched Gonzaga roll into town the past few years: it can be a tough place to play.
Prediction
I really feel like this game plays well for St. Mary's at home. BYU can't outscore them in the halfcourt for 40 minutes. BYU just doesn't seem to shoot well on the road. St. Mary's has the revenge factor as Jimmer hit a three at the buzzer to win the San Padre Island Tourney against the Gaels last season. St. Mary's should be able to hit shots against a BYU defense that has seen some high percentages against it this year. Call it a hunch, or call me a homer, though, I really feel BYU should handle the Gaels with relative ease even though I think the analysis would give the game to St. Mary's. I could see this going a lot like the Baylor game for BYU, but without the two big surges that cost BYU the game. BYU obviously wants to get this game into the high 70's or higher as they have a lot more firepower than the Gaels, but I think if they can get to 70, they should have a good chance. BYU 72, St. Mary's 64.
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