BYU's D vs. Tulsa's O

BYU's Defense ranks in the top 30 in the four major defensive categories: pass D (28th), run D (23rd), total D (16th), and scoring D (23rd).  They are also 44th in turnovers (35th in INTs), 37th in 3rd down defense., and 12th in red zone defense.  The defense put up those numbers with the offense completely non-existent for a third of the season.

Tulsa's Offense looks somewhat similar to BYU's D statistically, in the top 40 in the major categories, including 23rd in scoring offense at 34 points/game.  Taking a closer look, the Golden Hurricane played four defenses that are statistically similar to BYU's.  UCF, Boise State, Oklahoma, and Houston all rank in the top 40 in those four categories.  Tulsa put up 24 against UCF, 21 against Boise State, 14 against Oklahoma, and 16 against Houston.

On the flip side, BYU's D put up their gaudy numbers against some pretty pathetic offenses.  TCU, Utah State, and Hawaii are the offenses most statistically similar to Tulsa.  BYU gave up 38 to TCU (I believe TCU is the most similar style-wise in that they are run-first, but still prolific in the passing game), 24 to Utah State, and 20 to Hawaii.

I know a lot has been made about the history of the Tulsa-BYU games getting a bit out of hand when it comes to total yardage and points scored, no more ridiculous than a 55-47 game the last time these two met.  However, BYU's D is more than capable of keeping Tulsa somewhat in check in terms of driving down the field.  Where BYU's D is vulnerable, and where Tulsa can exploit it, is in big plays.  Tulsa has 8 plays this season that have gone for over 50 yards, 3 on the ground and 5 through the air.  That's a LOT of big plays.  BYU has given up 7 plays over 50 yards this season.  50 yards is more than just a BIG play too.  20 yards is usually the cutoff for big plays.  50-yard plays are game-changers more than anything.

Tulsa has struggled to score in the red zone, BYU has done well in stopping teams in the red zone.  So for Tulsa to put up massive points on BYU, they'll need one or two of those game-changing 50+ yard plays.  Because of those variables, this game really could play out like either of Wednesday's bowl games: first one to 42 wins like Toledo or first one to 3 scores wins like Texas.  I trust Bronco's D to be mostly stout and not give up big play after big play, which should make this game more like Texas-Cal than Toledo-AFA, and should put Tulsa around the 20-24 point range.  Now whether that's low enough of a point total to win or not depends on BYU's O, and how many turnovers it has.