The Run Game
BYU has an average rushing attack, and it's outright mediocre when they face strong front 7s. Tulsa has a decent front 7, maybe not quite good enough to make the "strong" category. Tulsa's front 7 is a little better than what BYU saw against Ole Miss (91 yards), Utah State (200), and Hawaii (167). However, RB Michael Alisa, BYU's most powerful runner, is questionable for the game. BYU probably needs to see about 150 yards or more on the ground in this game, which isn't that big of a stretch against a team that gives up 131 yards.
I must stress again: BYU racks up a lot of rushing yards against bad front sevens. Tulsa's isn't great, but it is decent. They aren't undersized or unathletic. BYU's Offensive Line should take it as a personal challenge to get 150 yards on the ground. I think they need it to prove to BYU fans that they can compete physically with solid opponents. BYU lost to 3 of 4 bowl opponents. While this front seven is NOT in the category of Texas (43 yards), Utah (11), or TCU (139), it's probably the next best one they'll face. As a BYU fan, I'm tired of watching the OL get worked by every half-decent front seven. Dominate this game! Give us something to look forward to next year.
Passing Attack
Tulsa is ranked 118th against the pass. Part of that was the non-conference schedule and the pass-happy nature of the Conference USA teams. However, on the flip side, only 2 other CUSA teams are ranked in the bottom 20 of college football near Tulsa. So clearly, Tulsa's secondary has seen a lot of great offenses, but they gave up an even greater amount of yards. Tulsa gives up 289 yards/game through the air. BYU doesn't need 289 (though Nelson has shown he CAN get yards through the air in bunches, and BYU averages 245 on the season), but they'll need to complete a high % of passes to sustain drives and keep Tulsa's big plays on the sidelines.
Third Downs
BYU has done a great job sustaining drives, particularly since Riley Nelson took over. In games where Nelson started, BYU is converting 64.1% on third down. Georgia Tech leads the nation at 54.9%, i.e. the Nelson-led BYU offense blows the next best team in the nation out of the water. For the season, combined with Heaps' crappy stats, BYU is 53%, which is still good enough for third in the nation. Tulsa is 83rd in the nation in stopping opponents on 3rd down. Again, they played 4 top 20 teams, so that is somewhat forgivable. But they also played 3 or 4 bottom 20 teams too.
Red Zone
BYU's O has struggled a bit in the red zone, as they sit at 82nd in the nation in red zone possessions being converted into points. Part of that is Justin Sorensen's inaccuracies as a field goal kicker, part of that is BYU going for it on fourth down a lot because of those inaccuracies, and part of that was Heaps' amazing ability to turn the ball over in the red zone. Tulsa, on the other hand, in 29th in Red Zone D. Did the rest help Sorensen? Will Riley Nelson be more comfortable on fourth downs in the red zone? Can BYU hang on to the ball in the red zone? BYU will quite possibly need all 3 of those things to be "fixed" for them.
Time of Possession
The final stat I'll present: Time of Possession. BYU's surging rushing attack, Riley Nelson's 61% completion percentage, and BYU's stout defense place BYU 28th in the country in Time of Possession. Tulsa sits at 113th. With the rust associated with the long layoff, with finals having come and gone, with bowl activities going on all week, and with the recent holiday food, teams are not in the same physical shape they were in earlier in the season. Players get tired. Time of possession could be a huge thing in this game. BYU has a chance to hold that edge, if Quezada and DiLuigi can fill the void left by an ailing Alisa.
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