BYU got off to a slow first few minutes, had a bad last few minutes of the first half, and completely skipped a 5-minute stretch in the second half from about 12.5 to 7.5 minutes left. Add that together, and it means they missed a golden opportunity to essentially lock themselves into an NCAA Tournament bid with an 86-83 loss to the #7 Baylor Bears. [I think BYU is going to be sitting around a 10-11 seed, based on what I have seen from them and what the future schedule holds for them. A win today could have vaulted them into single digit range, but now they remain on the bubble.]
They overcame the slow start and had a 13-point lead with about four minutes left in the half. They overcame a poor last 3 minutes of the first half to get a 10-point edge early in the second half. They nearly overcame that 5-minute lapse in play in the second half, cutting a 9-point deficit to just a single point with a minute to go. Ultimately, there were five problems BYU had in the second half that cost them the game.
1) I'll just go ahead and get it out there first, since I know this is what BYU fans will latch onto: during the five-minute scoreless drought, they got no help from the officials. Calls were missed entirely and bad calls were made. BYU was getting whistled for fouls with minimal contact, balls were being called out of bounds on them that they didn't touch, and Baylor was getting away with a lot of contact on defense. My KU fan co-worker informed me that Big XII refs have that kind of reputation when "their" teams hit the road. It was bad, but that was far from the only issue.
2) Baylor's shooting, Baylor got some open looks from three, but a lot of those threes in the second half were contested. Baylor also hit a lot of tough mid-range jumpers and scored in the paint, even when BYU defended well. Baylor just flat out scored when they had to. In a lot of situations, BYU defended perfectly and Baylor came away with 2 or 3 points. There was nothing they could do.
3) Turnovers. Jimmer Junior (Matt Carlino) had some amazing shots and acrobatic moves. But he had 4 turnovers, including one that sparked the Baylor second half run where he turned it over and fouled the Bear and another on a possession with under a minute to go when BYU had a chance to take the lead. Abouo also had 5 turnovers on the night. BYU turned it over at crucial times, BYU made unforced errors, and BYU didn't get nearly enough turnovers from Baylor in the second half.
4) Rebounding. For the game, BYU held a decent edge in rebounding. But in the second half, Baylor was aggressive on their offensive rebounding and ended up with 8 or 9 boards on that side of the ball, 4 of which came during their 5-minute run, and 1 of which extended the lead to 3 with 23 seconds to go after BYU got a stop. The BYU bigs just looked tired. And they were. Hartsock, Davies, and Zylstra hardly sat out in the game. Those three were the reason BYU was dominating the glass early in the game. They didn't go get the ball, on offense or defense, in the second half.
5) Free Throws. BYU typically shoots around 75%. This team, this season, is at 70%, and against Baylor they were 60%. 75% would have given BYU 3 additional points. I believe they also missed the front end in two 1-and-1 situations during the game, which is big b/c they don't even get to shoot the second one.
In a game against "the big boys" having all five of those things working against makes it tough to win. There are SOME positives to take from the game, though I don't believe in moral victories. BYU played one of the premier teams in the country to a virtual deadlock without their 6th man Stephen Rogers; and they did it on a day when their opponent shot lights out and had the refs in their pocket. BYU can compete. They outscored Baylor in the paint. They had more second chance points, more points in transition, and more scoring from their bench than a top 10 team (and I think Baylor has a decent shot to stay in the top ten the rest of this season). Jimmer's offense and Jackson's defense made BYU a great team last season. This looks to be a really good team because it is a really good team.
I certainly feel better that BYU should be able to run their schedule pretty well. I suspect St. Mary's and Gonzaga will give BYU trouble (both at home and on road), but BYU shouldn't lose more than four games the rest of the season. BYU will not be challenged in the remaining December non-conference schedule. Then they play everyone in WCC play twice. They are likely to lose at Saint Mary's and Gonzaga (but again, they can compete with anyone and COULD win either of those), and possibly drop a game to one of those two at home. They may drop another random conference road game as they are getting used to all of the new venues. They also have a non-conference game in January at Va Tech that will be huge. And who knows, maybe the sting from this game propels BYU to win some of the games they might otherwise have lost. But let's just speak in historical terms and trends: BYU will go about 13-3 in conference play.
BYU would be right around 23-6 entering the West Coast Conference Tournament, where they will be either the two or three seed. The 2 seed gets a DOUBLE bye, whereas the 3 only gets a single bye. BYU would have more chances to get extra wins as a 3-seed, but obviously there is a better chance of winning it as a 2-seed. Let's just say BYU is 24-7 after the conference tourney. That SHOULD get them into the NCAA Tournament, but again, it's probably as an 11-seed if they get in as an at-large, and not the WCC automatic bid. BYU's biggest problem is going to be lack of signature wins in non-conference play.
They'll have 5 or 6 shots at St. Mary's and Gonzaga in conference play and then they have the game at Va Tech. So far, they are 0-3 in those potential signature non-conference wins. With about 6 of those games left, they'll probably need to be at least 3-3 to feel "safe" in their resume. If they miss the NCAA tournament, they can look right back at this game and know, this result was a big reason. Non-conference wins matter, and they missed a big chance today in a game that was theirs to lose. And lose it they did.
Carlino had some great moments today. He is going to be a great player. But I think this season, he is going to be frustrating to watch, as Jimmer was at times throughout his career for those of us that watched essentially every game of his four-year career. His ability to score was incredible, including at least three where I literally thought he looked like a left-handed Jimmer. As I mentioned earlier, he had the turnovers, that is going to be frustrating to watch, because most of them were unnecessary, and two of them were at crucial situations. But he also took a few ill-advised shots, several of which were completely out of the flow of the offense. I said before the game that BYU always competes in these games, and, when they don't have a Jimmer, they always fall short. Jimmer Junior tonight showed that he has that potential, but he's not that guy yet. But hey, it was his FIRST GAME in college! I didn't play that well in my first intramural game in college (or any intramural game in college for that matter).
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