A Look Ahead and Behind

BYU and the Big East
I was ecstatic to hear that BYU and the Big East have ceased discussions.  When they commenced, I mentioned to a buddy at work that BYU would fight for the TV Independence it got when it went Independent, and that is apparently what stalled the talks.  I couldn't be happier.  I thought it was a bad move from the start.

There are two major positives to joining the Big East: easier BCS access and more meaningful November games.  There is no way that BYU could increase access for its fans and exposure to the country by joining the Big East.  Well, I suppose the exposure COULD increase in the Big East, since all BYU would have to do would be beat Boise State and they would be all but guaranteed a spot in the conference championship game, and with a win, a BCS game.

I believe that BYU will start to have more meaningful November games.  I don't anticipate a steady slate of byes, New Mexico States, and Idahos in future Novembers (though this looks like the case in 2012).  Now, I don't anticipate a lot of big-name November matchups, but BYU should be able to get some games against bowl-eligible opponents in November starting in 2013.

Regardless, at the risk of being left out of what may end up being 5 large, major conferences (though I think the Big XII not expanding to 12 will ultimately sink their conference and lead to 4 superconferences), I think BYU needs to pursue Independence, at the very least, through 2013, if not further down the road before even seriously contemplating switching courses.

BYU Basketball Thoughts
BYU is 3-0 against teams that almost certainly won't make the NCAA Tournament.  They are 0-2 against teams that probably will make the tournament.  With 9 more non-conference games to go, BYU only plays one more certain NCAA Tournament team, with two other fringe teams.  BYU Basketball looks very similar to BYU Football right now: they beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams.  Right now, they haven't played enough middle teams to find out exactly where they fit in the spectrum.  Oregon is their next opportunity to play one: a team that hopes to make the NCAA Tournament but will probably be on the bubble.

In watching several of BYU's games so far this year, one thing is apparent: they miss Jimmer Fredette.  Not just because he was Jimmer Fredette either.  When teams extend their defense, the Cougars do not have any guard that can put the ball on the floor and create for himself or for others.  That is really the one thing the good BYU teams of the 2000's lacked, and what they seriously lack right now in Jimmer's absence.  Travis Hansen was pretty good at it, but he wasn't a true guard.  Jimmy Balderson occasionally could create for himself (but never for others, and was a complete liability on defense).  Against Wisconsin, BYU managed just 1-10 on three pointers.  The 10% is obviously problematic, but the lack of confidence is worse.  BYU consistently shoots 18 or more 3s in a game.  The lack of ability to create open shots completes the trifecta.

Harrison appears to be growing a bit on the guard line.  We still are yet to see what Carlino brings to the table, but he's got to be better than Martineau or Cusick.  Anson Winder has potential, he certainly is a long body that can move up and down the floor.  There is some inexperience there, but I think the fact is that Martineau and Cusick just cannot play the game at the level that BYU needs if they are to take their program to the next level.  It will have to be Carlino, Harrison, and Winder that get BYU there.

BYU falt out just needs its guards to play better.  But BYU fans are well aware of this.  Other than Jimmer, in the years since Danny Ainge they have never had a guard with the toughness and skill to take on aggressive defenses.  There is too much church ball in their guard line.  Right now, that's what I see from BYU basketball.

I predict a 10-4 or 9-5 finish in the non-conference.  I anticipate that Baylor will probably beat BYU in Provo and I'm not sure how good Oregon or Virginia Tech really are right now, but I can't imagine BYU winning both games away from Provo (Oregon is at Energy Solutions in Salt Lake).  There shouldn't be any issues dispatching everyone else there.

I would hope for no worse than 12-4 in conference play, though I liked what I saw from Santa Clara in passing a few days (or maybe weeks now?) ago which could revise that down to 11-5 at the worst.  BYU should win home games against everyone except perhaps Saint Mary's, and Gonzaga, though I don't believe they lose both of those.  They could get nipped in a few conference road games as well, most notably Santa Clara, though I wouldn't count Loyola-Marymount or San Francisco out.  At 22-8 prior to the conference tournament, they would be squarely on the bubble, particularly because that would leave them with few quality wins, and none of them away from home.

BYU at Hawaii
I have two big concerns for the Hawaii game.  First and foremost, BYU's secondary against athletic, talented players that specialize in the short passing game.  Second, Hawaii needs the game to get bowl eligible.  Certainly I believe the Warriors motivation to get to a bowl game exceeds BYU's motivation to get to 10 wins.

There are several positives for BYU, however.  First, Hawaii is being investigated for point-shaving.  Any distraction for Hawaii is a good distraction, as BYU will have plenty to deal with on the islands, i.e. pretty girls in bikinis.  Second, Hawaii has been beat twice at home this season.  The Islands have not been the fortress of victories that they typically are.  Third, this is Hawaii's eighth consecutive week with a game, where BYU has had two byes in the past month.  BYU is rested.  Hawaii is nicked up.  Mobile QB Bryant Moniz is not playing, replaced by statue QB David Graves whose accuracy is questionable at best.  Fourth, BYU has proven they can compete and win on the road.  They beat Ole Miss and Oregon State, which are similar in talent levels to Hawaii.  They competed at Texas and in Arlington against TCU, which are a step-up from Hawaii.

Will the positives outweight the negatives?  I don't know.  I think the motivation for a bowl game really might be the difference.  As a former football player, I can tell you that motivation of that kind only lasts for maybe half the first quarter, and after that, it's just about execution.  There may another slight boost immediately after half-time, but again, after that, it's about playing the game.  The problem is BYU's recent history of having poor starts and "giving" gifts early in games.  If Hawaii gets up 14-0 that first 7.5 minutes with a motivated start, BYU may not recover.  I certainly don't anticipate a Jake Heaps-quarterbacked team coming back from that deficit.  He isn't the right kind of leader right now to bring a team back from a two-score deficit.  Doman isn't the right kind of OC right now to call a game for Heaps that CAN have Heaps bring the team back: he'll call three straight out patterns and if they aren't all complete, BYU has to punt.

Utah's Missed Opportunity
Utah had three missed field goals in a game they lost by 3 points, including two in the fourth quarter, one a chip shot barely longer than an extra point.  Had Utah won the game, they would be 8-4 and representing the Pac 12 South in the Conference Championship Game in their first season in the conference, after losses by Arizona State and UCLA over the weekend.  However, given that Utah had no experience at RB, little at WR, and a QB coming off shoulder surgery who didn't survive the season, the Utes rebounded well from a sluggish start.

While I wouldn't necessarily call it a successful season for them given what could have been, they did well for themselves.  This was clearly a rebuilding year and they competed in most of their Pac 12 games.  The three conference losses at home hurt though, considering it was against 7-5 Washington, 6-6 Arizona State, and 3-10 Colorado.  However, as with BYU's young team, they have a lot to look forward to next season.  The young bucks that cost them games against USC and Colorado, and prevented them from being in games against Washington, Arizona State, and at Cal, will be that much more experienced and familiar with program expectations next season.

But let's face it, they were thoroughly outplayed in all of their losses, even if the scoreboard was close.  This was my biggest criticism of them in the MWC, they tend to play to the level of their competition.  They should have beaten ASU, won at Cal, and destroyed Colorado.  They often gave similar efforts against CSU, Wyoming, or UNLV.  The talent disparity was such that they could overcome it more often than not.  They have to come more prepared every week in the Pac 12 or it will cost them, as it did this season.  Talent-wise, they match up RIGHT NOW with 8 of the other 11 schools in the conference.  And it's not the "grind of the season" that they can't handle, as they reeled off four wins in a row in late October through November.  It's the same problem they have always had: bringing their A-game every week.  Utah cannot win with its B-game in the Pac 12.  They match up with, they aren't better than, their competition.  This ain't Little Sisters of the Poor anymore.