Sorry, the internet has been down at our house the past two weeks, and even now it's only working intermittently. So BYU trounced Idaho, dispatched them with little issue. No surprise. The only thing I was really curious to see from BYU last week was the mindset. After going 0-3 against its bowl-bound opponents, and 6-0 against the rest, I was curious how they would come out of the gates. They stormed out to a big lead and never looked back. With Riley's injury, it also reaffirmed to me that while Riley turned it around, once the ship was righted against Utah State, Heaps or Nelson would have yielded about the same record. Even James Lark looked decent last week in the win. BYU needed Nelson to beat Utah State, that much was obvious, but I think BYU would have lost to TCU and beat everyone else with any of the three QBs. It was just a product of the schedule. There were three teams better than BYU on the schedule, and BYU will have at least 3 losses. Obviously, there is more to add to the story with each passing week, especially with Nelson on the shelf.
BYU's O vs. NMSU's D
There are few teams with worse defenses than New Mexico State. In fact, I would argue of the 120 FBS schools, only Memphis and Troy have worse defenses. They rank 111th in total D, 112th in scoring, 96th in passing, and 107th in rushing. And that was against one of the easiest schedules in college football. I anticipate that BYU will come out with the kind of attack we thought we'd see all season: hit the ground running and taking shots with the play-action passing game. Heaps throws for 200, completing 60% of his passes. Maybe BYU finally has a RB get over 100 yards in a game, though I don't know if that will happen. BYU has four RBs averaging 6 carries or more a game. There just aren't enough carries, it seems, for someone to get 100 without breaking a 40-yarder or longer.
So BYU puts up 7 or 8 scores, putting up somewhere between 42 to 52 points. NMSU hasn't really stopped anybody all season. 5 teams have put up over 40 points on NMSU, and some of those teams don't have offenses as good as BYU's.
BYU's D vs. NMSU's O
My gambling buddies asked me if BYU could cover a 23-point spread. BYU's weakness is the short passing game, NMSU's strength is the short passing game. How many slants and hitches will BYU see today? My guess is A LOT. Can BYU's OLBs get in passing lanes? Can BYU's front three bat down passes and push the pocket early? That will decide it.
Even then, it's tough to come from behind. A "shootout" I expect, but that could amount to 20 points for New Mexico State. They've got some "big play" guys but those are usually run-after-the-catch type of plays. BYU has actually done decently at that this season, comparatively speaking. NMSU doesn't go down the field much, but BYU will have to be ready for the 3 or 4 shots they will take.
Prediction
BYU mauls, 45-17. Heaps looks good. Backups get playing time. And BYU goes into the Hawaii game in two weeks at a completely unsensational 8-3. The real question is: does BYU accept that Big East invitation? For reasons I will lay out later next week (if our internet gets working again): I hope not! I have tried to rationalize it, but all I can come up with is why BYU might WANT to join, I can't get myself to get to "why they SHOULD join."
I will there at the game freezing in the stadium. It should be a blowout. In response to your Big East invite, I can't think of a good reason not to join. Interested to see why you think we shouldn't.
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