Bowl Blitz

Well, tonight we find out a lot of things.  Who plays in the title game?  Who gets the only real at-large BCS bid (Bama and Stanford have wrapped up 2 of the 3 available ones)?  And, most importantly of course, who is BYU's opponent in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl?

BCS Title Game
I think OK State has a legitimate chance to pass Bama, but there aren't many that agree with me.  They are EXTREMELY close in the USA Today Poll, and will probably be close in the Harris Poll as well.  The computers will favor OK State over Bama.  I think it will be VERY tight, and Bama PROBABLY gets the nod, but it wouldn't surprise me either way.  It will have a BIG impact on the rest of the BCS Bowls and their matchups.  I am not sure that there are any great matchups to be had, simply because of the bowl selection process.  Oregon mauls Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.  Clemson should demolish the Big East Champ as well in the Orange.  OK State or Alabama should win their non-national championship bowl (whichever one gets left behind).

Selection Process
So I will try to explain the order, as concisely as possible, for those interested.  #1 and #2 are slated for the NC Game.  Then the conference champions go to their respective bowls with the exception of the Big East and non-BCS champ that will ultimately earn an auto-bid.  Big Ten and Pac 12 to the Rose Bowl, Big XII to the Fiesta, and ACC to the Orange.  Since LSU will be #1, the Sugar Bowl gets the first "replacement" pick and there is no second "replacement" pick.  If OK State is #2, Fiesta gets the second "replacement" pick after the Sugar.  If Bama is #2, Fiesta gets OK State and gets the first "real" pick, followed by Sugar, followed by Orange.
So, for argument's sake, Bama is #2, Sugar SHOULD take Stanford as a replacement for LSU, the SEC champ they lost to the NC Game.  Fiesta Bowl then gets to make the biggest decision of the bowl season: who is the final at-large?  At this point in the process, there are three spots left, with one guaranteed to Big East Champ (I predict West Virginia) and most likely one to the highest rated non-BCS conference champ, assuming they are in the top 16 and ranked higher than either Clemson or the Big East champ; TCU should fit that bill easily.  So the Fiesta can take an at-large bid.  They could not take a Big XII team to play OK State, they cannot take a third SEC team, but beyond those two restrictions, they can select anyone in the top 14 of the final BCS standings or West Virginia/TCU.  I think they will decide the final team in the BCS and take an at-large candidate.  Do they take #6 Boise State?  Or reach down to Virginia Tech, Michigan, Michigan State?  Could Boise State get shut out two years in a row at 11-1 and ranked in the top 8 of the final BCS Standings?  If Bama is #2, it's up to the Fiesta to decide Boise's fate, as neither the Sugar or Orange Bowl would take the Broncos.  Plus, if the Fiesta takes another at-large team, they would eliminate the Broncos from consideration as Sugar and Orange must take TCU and West Virginia.

If OK State is #2, that changes things drastically.  Bama goes to Sugar, Stanford to Fiesta.  Fiesta then could select Kansas State to face Stanford and decide the final at-large spot.  Again, TCU and West Virginia would play in the Sugar and Orange Bowls.

Mo Predicts
So, in summary, Mo predicts: West Virginia and Clemson in the Orange Bowl and TCU playing either Stanford or Alabama in the Sugar Bowl (I assume Sugar would want Stanford over TCU, Boise State, or Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech).  The Fiesta Bowl is the one with the most possible variation.  They will have either OK State or Stanford as their first team, with the second being ANYBODY (with OK State) or K-State (with Stanford).  I think the Fiesta should favor Boise against OK State, but they have done strange things before, so I could see them grabbing Brady Hoke's Michigan squad b/c of the gigantic fan base.  The only other two options will be Virginia Tech and Michigan State.

No matter how you dice it: are there any matchups in there that anyone's excited about?  Stanford-TCU in the Sugar could be interesting.  Kansas State-Stanford would be a great "old school" style game in the Fiesta.  I wouldn't mind seeing Boise State against OK State in the Fiesta, but I'd rather not see a rematch of Bama-LSU in the Title Game.  It was a horribly played game the first time around, and, besides, Bama had their shot, AT HOME, against LSU and lost.  I'd rather see OK State get their crack at it.  Two things I don't want to see from the BCS games: 11-1 Boise State get shut out again and Alabama getting another shot at LSU.

BYU's Bowl Prospects
And in BYU notes, the Armed Forces Bowl, which is played on the campus of SMU, gets third choice of C-USA schools.  Southern Miss is spoken for, as conference champ.  Houston will undoubtedly go next, however, the Bowl game could negotiate for Houston.  I believe it's the St. Petersburg Bowl that gets "second" choice this year, but the two trade off each year and negotiations are common between the bowls if it will help set-up a better matchup.  That would be sweet!

If they don't negotiate for Houston, then they can either take the 7-5 hometown SMU team or take 8-4 Tulsa.  SMU played in the game last season, and my feeling is, if SMU wants to stay home again for bowl season, they will get the nod, and if they don't, the "bowl" will select Tulsa.  Both teams are similar in style and skill as Hawaii, which BYU dismantled in the third quarter last night on their way to a 41-20 victory.  I think Tulsa would be a tougher test, skill-wise, but playing a true road game for your bowl has its own challenges.  It would be nice to see BYU win 10 games again.  However, at this point, I just want to see BYU play a tough team and win.  BYU was 8-0 against teams with losing records this season.  They went 1-3 against teams going to bowl games, with the lone win an improbable come-from-behind win over Utah State with 11 seconds to go.  I want to see BYU play as good a team as possible, win or lose, just to see if they have improved, or if the schedule just got easier.  No doubt in my mind, Tulsa is that team, when compared to SMU.