BYU-Tulsa, the Prediction

Coming into Thursday, I had convinced myself of two BYU 8-point wins on Thursday at St. Mary's and then Friday against Tulsa.  Since BYU hoops lost by 16 to the Gaels, I may have to rethink my strategy.  A lot of folks have been playing this up as a potential shoot-out, though probably more in line with Toledo-Air Force than Baylor-Washington.  However, I tend to disagree and think it will be a much more mild game than that.  Yes, I realize that there are two somewhat prolific offenses taking the field.  In such a game, I would tend to favor the team with the better defense.  However, as Baylor and Washington taught us: the better offensive team can have its way just as easily as the better defensive team.  Washington had a better D than Baylor, but that didn't mean they could get a stop!

This is a game that could be close early and hinge on one or two plays and resulting momentum changes.  Who makes them, and when, will be crucial.  BYU's D needs to get off the field on third down.  They need to limit the number of plays Tulsa gets to run, to prevent "the big one" that could swing momentum and the game in favor of the Golden Hurricanes.

No matter how great BYU's D plays, as I mentioned in a prior article, I believe Tulsa gets off on or two big plays for TDs, I believe that is inevitable.  The key becomes turnovers and drives.  If BYU doesn't turn it over, they win.  If Tulsa finds a way to sustain drives and get points on long scoring drives, they win.  Tulsa has the better O, BYU the better D.  I like Riley Nelson's progression over the course of the season, and I believe his ability to convert on third down and his will to get in the end zone decide this game.  I look to see an emotional display of football from him early in the game.  His team will follow his lead, so he'd better come out gangbusters or BYU could get stomped.

This really is a game that could play out any of four ways: blowout win for either team or close win for either team.  Both sides are more than capable of any of those four.  Both teams have been blown out, both teams have blown teams out, and both have won close games.  (BYU has lost close games though, where Tulsa has not)

In the end, I'm sticking with that 8-point Cougar win.  Riley Nelson's passion, along with Kyle Van Noy's play-making ability on defense, propels BYU to a victory over Tulsa, BYU 28, Tulsa 20.