Underdogs and the Bowls

The Favorites
I read an article a few years back that said that something like 55% of underdogs win bowl games.  That is not 55% beat the spread, this is 55% of underdogs straight up win their bowl games.  Again, I do not recall the exact figure but it was over 50%, or exactly where I read it, but I know that I read it from a reputable source of some kind.  My postulation on that topic would be a couple of factors lead to underdogs performing so well: better teams rely more on rhythm, motivation is a huge factor in bowl games, and egos always play a role with 18-24 year old boys.

Lack of Rhythm, or Derhythmification as Mo Calls It
Most bowl games occur 3-4 weeks after a team's final game.  Any momentum, clicking, or chemistry are long gone.  Finals and holidays also can serve as a de-rhythm-ifier (pretty sure I just made that word up...) in that time period.  Teams that have better rhythm tend to have better results during the season.  However, playing in a bowl game is almost like playing in the first game of the season again: you are not on the same page.  Plus, you never know who is going to step up and make plays.  With so much time to prepare, opposing defenses can create a scheme to help take out one of their opponents best players.

Motivation
A lot of times, in bowls, one team may feel slighted as to where they ended up.  Because of bowl tie-ins, a conference that had a good year can get in a lot of mismatches, particularly if the conferences they match up with in bowls had bad seasons.  Teams may also get looked over for other "better" bowl matchups and then "slide" to a less-than-desirable bowl game.  If a team is too disappointed with its destination, they may not leave it all on the field.  Boise State was one missed field goal from the Rose Bowl.  Try thinking about that for 3 weeks as you wait for your Vegas Bowl appearance...

Ego Issues
Players from the favored team may feel going into a game, that the opponent is not worthy of them, that their conference, or their record, indicate that they are an inferior team.  They have weeks and weeks to have this ego boost fester in their system before the game.  Conversely, going into a normal game, players may hear a week before, or at most two weeks before, how big of an underdog they are in their upcoming game.  They don't have much time to really think about it, or prepare for it.  For bowls, however, a lot of players are finished with the semester and have plenty of time on their hands to hear from others about their "David status" and about their Goliath of an opponent.  Not to mention that the time period itself is 3-5 weeks.  That would motivate me to get ready to hit someone in the mouth come bowl week.  If nothing else, it would damage my ego to hear about how much I suck and I would want to prove everyone wrong!

If you are doing a Bowl Pick'Em: don't just slide down the favorite column.  You may find yourself at the bottom of the standings!  There are obviously a lot of other factors that could go into it: coaching changes, location, fan willingness to travel, etc.  This was just an example of three things to consider when making your selections.  Enjoy the bowl season!