Boise State-Utah 2010 Vegas Bowl Preview

As my friend Brian pointed out to me this week, this could be an annual matchup in the Vegas Bowl: the MWC Champion and the Pac 12 6th-place team.  But I digress...

This game all comes down to motivation.  Boise State is a physically superior team.  They are a better-coached team.  They have a better QB.  They have a better offense (115 yards and 11 points more per game by Boise State).  They have a more stifling defense (60 yards and 5 points fewer per game allowed by Boise State).  And they did that with nearly identical strengths of schedule (Jeff Sagarin has Utah's SOS as 66 and Boise State as 70).  Will Boise State be motivated?  They were one missed field goal away from playing in the Rose Bowl.  Instead they are playing before Christmas with a payday of $1M, instead of the $17M from the Grand Daddy of Them All.

While I do think Boise State is disappointed, they bring to the game the winningest senior class in college football.  Those guys will want to go out on top.  They are going against what is (and probably will forever be) the winningest senior class in Utah's football history.  Both teams had higher aspirations though.  Utah wanted to go out on top of the MWC, and had a chance at it until the 40-point beatdown they took at the hands of TCU.  In the words of one of their captains before the season after being picked to finish second: we'll remind the MWC why the Pac 10 picked us.

For Boise State, they are facing the second best defense they will have played this season behind Virginia Tech.  For Utah, they are also facing the second best defense they will have played behind TCU.  Boise State has played two better offenses, Nevada and Fresno State.  Utah is playing the best offense it will play this season.

31 points is the cutoff for this one.  Boise State hasn't scored less than 31 points in a game this season.  Utah only scored 31 or more in half of their games this season.  Only one team scored more 31 or more on Boise State (Nevada).  Utah gave up 31 or more twice.

Utah is playing backup QB Terrance Cain, who had a less than stellar game against BYU.  He was 2-7 with 2 INTs and 8 yards.  Boise State brings a little more to the table defensively than BYU did.  While I do not believe he will struggle that badly for 4 quarters, I see a similar result: not many points scored while he is at the helm.  He does bring a mobility aspect to the game that Jordan Wynn does not, though he lacks the downfield throwing ability that Wynn brought to the table.  If Boise State does not have to worry about the downfield passing game, they can key in on the run and the short crossing routes.  Boise State LB Will Venable should get a dozen tackles this game, including some memorable, vicious hits.

Coach Kyle Whittingham knows how to use extra preparation time.  K-Whit is 12-2 in games where he has more than 9 days to prepare (3-2 in season openers, 5-0 after byes, and 4-0 in bowl games).  But, typically, he is not going up against a team like the Broncos in those games.  In fact, the Alabama team he played in the Sugar Bowl is the only similar-type of team that he faced in those situations.

If Boise State shows up, they dominate this game, plain and simple.  I believe they do show up and Utah's bowl winning streak is halted at 9 straight bowl wins over the past 11 years.  Boise State gives Utes everywhere a scare as they get set to head into the Pac 12 with their RBs, leading WRs, and a few offensive linemen graduating, by winning most of the battles on that side of the ball from kickoff to final whistle.  It will be Boise State reminding Utah why there are critics of their inclusion into the Pac 12, not Utah reminding the nation why the Pac 12 chose them.  Boise State 34, Utah 13.