Big Changes at Texas Good For BYU
I will highlight this in more detail in a report to come after the bowl season about BYU's 2011 opponents, but Texas had a rough season and it will benefit BYU in a lot of ways. The most obvious of which: they fired their Offensive Coordinator and their Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp just took the head coaching job at Florida. Turmoil for Texas equals blessings for BYU. Merry Christmas, Cougar fans, Texas will be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball in week two, without 15 postseason practices and a bowl game to ease into it. Texas will play Rice in week 1 and BYU is playing the Longhorns ahead of Texas' revenge game at UCLA in week 3. This gives BYU a much more legitimate shot in Austin on September 10th.
Fighting Hunger
BYU has signed a deal with the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in 2013. This will pit the Cougars against a 6th selection from the Pac 12. It looks a lot like the Vegas Bowl, unfortunately, albeit a little bit worse of a game. Vegas gets the 5th selection from the Pac 12, and has a payout of $1M. Kraft Fight Hunger gets the 6th, and the current payout is $750k, though the financial arrangements made with BYU have not yet been disclosed. Army will play in the game in 2011, Navy in 2012, and BYU in 2013. If the Pac 12 does not have 6 bowl-eligible teams, the 9th-place ACC team is contracted to the game. It is definitely a step up from the New Mexico Bowl, and it is certainly better than nothing. BYU has no contracts in place yet for 2011 or 2012.
Climbing the Rankings
BYU moved up to 16th in the AP poll this week. That is their highest December ranking in the Dave Rose era. In fact, it is the highest pre-Valentine's Day ranking of the Dave Rose era. If they can survive against UCLA this weekend, they should have smooth sailing, and a top 15 ranking, heading into their January 5th showdown at UNLV. It also looks very likely that BYU could be 18-1, or at worst 17-2, heading into their game with SDSU at home on January 26th. SDSU will likely come in with a similar record but with a slightly higher ranking. At 18-1, both schools would likely be in the top 10. The MWC hasn't ever had a conference matchup like that in its history. Too bad it won't be broadcast on a "normal" station. The rematch, set for San Diego on February 26th will be on REGULAR CBS. Both teams could realistically be 24-3 or better for the rematch...not projecting too far ahead on that one, but both games should involve two top 20 teams. A great season for the MWC, just in time for it to get dismantled.
Another Expansion Move
Hawaii joins the MWC in football, and all other sports move to the Big West. [So the MWC was willing to make concessions and change its bylaws to get Hawaii in football, but not willing to do anything to keep BYU. Interesting. I imagine the remainder of this basketball season will show more about what MWC teams and fans really think about BYU. SDSU got the party started with their complaints about a replay in their football game against BYU. I imagine New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU road basketball games will also be "interesting" venues. Keep your families safe, or better yet, just stay away and protect yourself from the profane outbursts of the non-silent minority.] The move destroys the WAC, essentially beyond repair. It leaves them with 7 conference members in 2012, with nowhere to go to find the NCAA-mandated 8th football team. The biggest loser in all of this continues to be the honorable Utah State, which stuck to an agreement they had with the WAC and BYU, turning down an MWC bid in the process, and will be left out in the cold when all of this settles.
It also helps the BCS conferences. They stole TCU and Utah, BYU left for Independence, so Boise State is joining a mildly better conference, but one that will not give them any more marquee wins than the WAC did. The additional tough games of Air Force and San Diego State, plus the occasionally not horrible CSU or Wyoming teams, will make it more difficult for Boise State (or Hawaii) to go undefeated. It will probably also weaken the other non-BCS conferences, as one or two of them will surely add one of the remaining WAC teams, which will ultimately weaken their conferences as a whole. The BCS will not have to worry about an upstart non-AQ school "stealing" a BCS bid every year, perhaps just every other year. This was well-played by the BCS conferences. They destroyed the MWC as a serious potential BCS conference, made it more difficult for any non-AQ to go undefeated, and ensured that never again will more than one non-AQ crash the party. This was exactly as I said it would happen, though it does not appear to have been a coordinated effort as I thought it might be (or should have been if they were intelligent)...
Good analysis again. It does appear the WAC will be no more after all leave. I look for La Tech to look elsewhere as well. Why stay in a conference so far away that will probably not qualify as a Div I conference? And look for Boise State who thought they had really improved themselves in June to look elsewhere as soon as possible.
ReplyDeleteBoise State, like most teams, will go to a better conference or situation whenever they can. The MWC was, and still is, head and shoulders above the WAC. It's still the best conference outside of the Big 6, so until the Big XII decides to expand (my guess is 2014, unless prompted to do so earlier by other BCS conference moves), Boise State is stuck. It is a better situation than they WERE in, but not where they ultimately want to be. Like TCU, Utah, and BYU...until they could make THE moves that improved their situation, they stayed put...no sense dropping your ugly dance partner for one equally as ugly...
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