In the MWC's next bowl, upstart SDSU takes on the uber-consistent Naval Academy and its triple option attack. The biggest factor in this game is the weather. The field is supposedly water-logged (though the stadium chairs have all been washed clean with 8 inches of rain over the past 3 or 4 days).
SDSU O vs. Navy D
The Aztecs have a great freshman RB in Ronnie Hillman, but make no mistake about it: they want to throw the ball. With Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, I'd throw the ball all over the place too.
Navy has done well at managing points but have given up lots of yards on the ground and through the air. In the games that I have seen, they tighten up as teams approach the 30. The sloppy conditions could play well for Navy's D, as Hillman will not be able to cut in the running game, and the routes of Brown and Sampson will be limited.
Still, SDSU has a speed and size advantage, plus a home-field advantage. I would anticipate them to put up at least 20 points against Navy, and they could be a few big plays from putting up 40.
Navy O vs. SDSU D
When a team plays Navy, they know they are going to see a lot of running, however, it takes discipline. Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long is known as a discipline guy, but his New Mexico teams frequently had problems stopping Air Force's Triple Option attack, and the 2010 Naval Academy is better than any of the Air Force offenses that Long couldn't stop.
Ricky Dobbs gives Navy a passing attack they have not usually had. WR Greg Jones had a couple of 100-yard receiving games. Dobbs also likes to hit RB Aaron Santiago as he sneaks out of the backfield in the red zone. Navy is a fun offense to watch because they are not just the typical triple option attack. It's not all FB dive, FB dive, QB run, FB, dive, QB pitch. They run a lot of sweeps, play-action pass, reverses, designed QB runs, etc. The triple option very often thrives in muddy conditions (if the offense can avoid fumbles): one slip by any defensive player is the difference between stopping a play and giving up a big one.
SDSU does not do anything particularly well defensively, and while they have a decent statistical rushing defense, that can be a little misleading. BYU rushed for 271 yards against them, Air Force went for 312, and TCU managed 226. Those were really the only teams that tried to run the ball against them, logging over 50 rushing attempts in those games. Navy should manage 50 rushing attempts against them. The main questions are going to be: can they break 300 rushing and can they break 100 passing? They will likely need both to put up at least 24 points against SDSU (unless they run for over 400 or somehow pass for over 200).
Prediction
SDSU is excited about playing in a bowl game for the first time in over a decade. That can be good and bad. Brady Hoke is coaching in only his second bowl game ever, having lost the only other one by 22 points to Rutgers following the 2007 season at Ball State. Contrast that to Navy: the seniors have played in a bowl game every season. Ken Niumatalolo is coaching in his 4th bowl game (though his first one he coached as an interim coach after Paul Johnson left for Georgia Tech). He is 1-2, having lost by 3 to Utah as the interim coach in the Poinsettia Bowl, lost by 10 to Wake Forest in the Eagle Bank Bowl, and thumping Missouri 35-13 last season in the Texas Bowl. Coaching edge: Navy. Motivation edge: Even. Home-field edge: SDSU. Ability/Execution Level edge: Navy. Playing in the Slop edge: Navy. Winner: Navy.
I really believe SDSU could win this game, and perhaps should win this game. It would be a great springboard into next season, where I think they should be a favorite to win the MWC (although they won't be), even with TCU and Boise State. But Navy's seniors, of which there are many, are too proud to fall in front of the folks stationed at the large Naval Base in San Diego. Navy gets it done: Navy 27, SDSU 20.
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