BYU-UTEP 2010 New Mexico Bowl Prediction

BYU's O vs. UTEP's D
The Cougar offense had its struggles during the season.  Really, the only successful offensive outputs that they had were against crummy defenses.  The UTEP Miners qualify in that regard.  They rank in the bottom half of FBS in pretty much every statistical category.  They have given up 300+ rushing yards to opponents on multiple occasions.  They have also given up 300+ passing yards on multiple occasions.  They gave up over 50 points twice.  If UTEP takes away the run, they give up the pass.  If they take away the pass, they give up the run.  The formula isn't too difficult for beating them: try out a few runs, then try out a few passes, whichever one works, stick with it.

I anticipate that BYU will probably stick to its running attack, and be successful.  They have a huge size advantage.  BYU OL has a 20-60 pound advantage against the UTEP DL.  BYU's Fullbacks are bigger than UTEP's Linebackers.  Two of BYU's three RBs are bigger than the Safeties.  BYU did struggle running against 4-man fronts, however.  Granted, the 4-man lines they struggled to run against this season were mostly ranked opponents, but still, it is something to consider.

I do wonder a little bit about the passing game.  I think this will be a game where BYU will need its TEs to get involved.  Shane's boy, Devin Mahina, could have a big game.  I think BYU will need him.  I think Anae will want to establish them, as a build-up into next season, if nothing else.  BYU will probably not need to throw much and I would be surprised to see Heaps get more than 25-30 attempts, unless the game dictates a strong need to pass the ball.

BYU's D vs. UTEP's O
UTEP has a dynamic offense, that really revolves around their 3 best players: QB Trevor Vittatoe, RB Joseph Banyard, and WR Kris Adams.  They have a decent-size offensive line, adequate TEs, a very solid group of other RBs, and a whole lot of seniors playing in their first and only bowl game.  They play a lot of players and give the ball to as many players as possible.  I don't recall a game where there were not at least 12 players running, catching, or throwing the ball.

They do not do anything particularly well, however.  They can run the ball OK: 150 yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry.  Their passing game is wildly inconsistent, not completing many passes, rarely for many yards, with a pick nearly every game.  BYU's defense, much like its offense, feasted upon bad opponents and struggled mightily against good ones.  This is a bad offensive opponent.  The Miners rank in the bottom half of FBS in most offensive categories as well.  And they had those struggles with an easy schedule.

I would anticipate UTEP's greatest successes will be throwing against BYU.  However, they are not well-polished in the passing game to expect great things from them.  They will have difficulty continuously running the ball and marching down the field against BYU.  They may pop a big play or two in the running game, but I don't believe they can sustain drives ramming the ball at the Cougar front 7.

Prediction
As I stated in an earlier post, bowl games are tricky animals to predict.  UTEP has all of the motivation, coaching stability, and excitement that successful bowl underdogs typically have.  However, BYU is not your typical heavy favorite.  They are excited to be playing in this (or any) bowl game, they are hungry, and young, enough to want to prove themselves, and the bowl game is early enough that they may still have some semblance of offensive rhythm.

I just think UTEP is going to be overmatched in this game.  I do not see enough matchups that go in their favor where they could exploit an advantage to win this game.  Their best chance is a lot of trickeration and going for big plays.  They will have the crowd, they will just need to get the momentum and hold onto it for long enough to win the game.  I think their bid to upset BYU falls short, though, perhaps by as early as the second quarter.  BYU 38, UTEP 17.

7-6 should be considered a successful season, given what the team went through.  I hope going into the offseason that the coaching staff is smart enough to find ways to work Riley Nelson in situationally, building a few special packages for him, rather than trying to split time with him and Heaps.  I also hope that they pick two or three TEs and stick with them as the main guys, rather than trying to rotate in 5 or 6 guys.  I further hope that they don't perpetuate those problems in the Linebackers next season.  10 LBs saw significant minutes this season and only 2 of them are graduating.  Add Uona Kaveinga, the transfer from USC, Iona Pritchard, coming off of a mission, and 3 incoming freshmen (though those guys will have a tough time seeing the field, and some may go on missions before actually joining the team: I do not know their intentions), to the mix as well.  Anyway, those are issues, along with many others, that I will discuss in plenty of detail in the offseason.  Until then, enjoy a big Cougar victory on Saturday!