Mo's Third Look at BYU's 2010 New Mexico Bowl Opponent

Mo's Impression
Just looking at the numbers a few things stand out to me.  1) They have a couple of very gifted, very athletic players on their roster.  2) They don't have many of those players.  3) They do not perform very well in the "effort" categories.  4) Given their inconsistencies from game to game, they probably have pretty poor offensive and defensive line play.

What Those Impressions Mean
1) They have big-play potential.  Giving up a big kickoff or punt return can swing momentum, as can an 80-yard offensive play or a big turnover.  In a game against BYU, a team with 1 or 2 game-changers is probably going to be stopped.  But a team that has 4 or 5 of those guys on both sides of the ball could make a lot of those big plays.  But UTEP only has 1 or 2.  And those 1 and 2 guys can be nullified, especially knowing that UTEP often suffers from a lack of effort, a lack of depth, and a lack of solid line play.

2) There is no depth.  They cannot withstand an injury or two.  A lot of the starters are also sub-par performers as it is.  BYU's lineup is better in every head-to-head matchup, with the potential exception of the secondary against WR Kris Adams.  That is the one matchup I think they will have to exploit, i.e. over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns.

3) Punt coverage and kickoff coverage, as well as turnovers, are often deemed the effort categories.  Although they can also be a referendum on the depth of a team.  If you aren't succeeding there, which UTEP has not at all this season, it is a bad sign for field position and morale of the team.  BYU has typically struggled in the return games, but they have also been using a brash, arrogant O'Neill Chambers for the past few years.  If UTEP has issues covering against BYU, they will get killed in the field position battle and may not be able to recover.

4) Without solid offensive and defensive lines, it is easy to lose to BYU.  BYU has big, strong, experienced, well-coached offensive linemen.  BYU has solid, aggressive, expereienced, and physical defensive linemen.  If UTEP cannot get good line play, it won't matter what else they do.  If BYU's OL and FB can block 6 (or even 7) of UTEP's front 7, look for BYU's rushing attack to flourish, i.e. 200 yards or more.  If they can protect Heaps, he should be able to pick apart a secondary that gives up 223 yards/game.  If BYU's front 3 can tie up 4 or 5 UTEP OL, it opens up the LBs and Safeties to be able to make plays behind the line of scrimmage.

In summary, these are the reasons that BYU is such a heavy favorite.