Arizona-BYU 2010 Hoops Preview

A Look at Arizona
The Arizona Wildcats are 8-1 this season, with the lone loss coming by 8 points in a hard-fought game against Kansas.  They are currently 77th in the CBS Sportsline RPI with a strength of schedule of 196.  This game will dramatically help their RPI and Strength of Schedule, regardless of the outcome.

They legitimately go 10-deep.  Sophomore Forward Derrick Williams headlines the group, averaging 20.2 points/game and 7.6 rebounds/game, both team highs.  He also leads the team in minutes, steals, and blocks.  He is a full-grown man, at 6'8" and 241 pounds.  He is strong around the basket, too strong for Brandon Davies.  He is also very quick off the dribble, too quick for Noah Hartsock.

They are all about athleticism, speed, and penetration.  They like to drive to the basket and get to the rim.  But they kick it out to open shooters when it isn't there.  They have capable shooters, but not a go-to guy on the outside to focus on.  Jamelle Horn, Kyle Fogg, Jordan Mayes, and Brendon Lavender are all guys that could get hot from the outside.  They have 7 guys in addition to Williams who have scored in double figures this season, so the rest of the scoring really could come from anywhere.

They do not employ a true center, except for a handful of minutes a game.  So their defense is focused on disruption on the perimeter and denying the ball inside.  They are not a great shot-blocking team, but they play pretty solid team and help-side defense.  After Jimmer went for 49 points last season, they might focus more on him and allow more freedom for BYU in the middle.

The Venue
BYU has played quite a few games at the Energy Solutions Arena over the past few years, with mostly good results.  They squeaked by Oklahoma State there, but lost a close one to Michigan State.  They outlasted Utah State, but got downed by Washington State.  And they played some inferior competition there and won handily.

BYU At-A-Glance
This is already BYU's 4th game in December.  In the last two weeks, BYU has played games in Texas, Nebraska, New York, and Salt Lake City.  They get the next week off before traveling to Anaheim to take on UCLA next Saturday.  The past two weeks, BYU has played a pretty tight rotation, cutting it to 7 or 8, and sometimes even 6, guys in most games.  Perhaps fatigue will be a factor.

Chris Collinsworth is still out with a foot injury, which keeps the rotation even tighter, without another reliable big body down low.  Hartsock and Emery join Jimmer as the only Cougars averaging double figures.  Davies is just one good game away from averaging double digits.  They are doing well rebounding as a team, but they do not have someone that could go out and get 10 boards consistently if they needed.

Catching the Game
The game will be on BYU-TV today at 4pm Mountain.  You can also catch the action online at byutv.org.  The audio, as always, is available on the ksl.com live audio stream.

Prediction
This is a game that BYU absolutely needs to win.  It is an athletic opponent with a real chance to win the Pac 10.  A win would give legitimacy to wins of potentially questionable value, at least nationally (Utah State and St. Mary's are quality wins but there are always skeptics of the mid major teams).  It is also a game that BYU cannot afford to lose, against a team that is not in the RPI top 50 and in a game played in the state of Utah.

BYU will be the best perimeter defense that Zona will have faced up until this point.  However, they are softer in the middle, particularly if Hartsock gets in foul trouble.  Arizona will be the most athletic team, and one of the most well-coached, that BYU will have played to date.  I would anticipate a very wide-open, but very sloppy, game on both sides.  Turnovers, missed shots, and fouls will be aplenty in this battle of future NCAA Tournament teams.

No question that BYU gets a real test here.  I think Arizona will hold a slim lead going into the final minutes of the game.  BYU is the veteran team, with the crowd on their side.  Arizona is the young team, in a mostly hostile environment.  That would seem to favor BYU pulling this out by making plays down the stretch.  But, in the end, BYU's traditionally poor shooting away from the Marriott Center will doom them in this game.  Unless someone like Stephen Rogers can find a way to get hot outside, or someone like Charles Abouo or Kyle Collinsworth can step up and get 8 cheap points from the free throw line, I think BYU will shoot and miss too many from the outside, with too many empty possessions to keep up with the more-efficient Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona 69, BYU 65.