BYU Hoops Opponents and the RPI

BYU currently sits at number 12 in the RPI, according to CBS Sportsline.com.  Obviously this number is subject to change, it will tomorrow, in fact, but it is an important number to keep an eye on, since it is one of the criterion used in determining NCAA Tournament bids and seeding.  Here is a rundown of BYU's future non-conference opponents, past non-conference opponents, and future conference opponents.  The trends I believe are important are: BYU will probably play 8 games against teams in the top 50 in the RPI (St. Mary's will probably be in the top 50 by season's end and BYU will probably get at least one game in the MWC Tourney against a top-50 team, though Vermont may not be there at season's end...) and probably an additional 4-6 against the rest of the top 100.  They will only have 6 or 7 games against teams in the the 200 to bottom range, which is also important to keep relatively (see New Mexico's RPI with a 5-1 record).

This may end up being one of the strongest collection of games BYU has had in years, they just need to keep winning to take advantage and put together its most impressive resume as well.  Having between 13-15 games against the top-100 is going to be huge, along with the 8 top-50 games.  This allows BYU a margin for error that they have not typically had in the past.  For a mid-major, a .667 winning percentage against the top 100 is about the cutoff in terms of getting an at-large (that would be about 10-5/9-4 for BYU: BYU is currently 4-0 against the top 100, so they would only need to go 6-5 the rest of the way).  Being at or near .500 against the top 50 helps in securing single-digit seeding as well (that would be 4-4 for BYU: they are already 3-0, counting St. Mary's as described above, so would only need to be 1-4 in games against MWC top 50 teams).

I believe that BYU could lose to Arizona, UNLV (max of twice), SDSU (max of twice), and New Mexico (only twice if they met in the MWC tournament), but they should handily win every other game on the schedule, barring a major upset.  If BYU had only 5 or 6 losses, they would be a single-digit NCAA Tournament team, with a final RPI in the top 30.  If it goes south, no guarantees.  BYU has a chance to do something they have not done in my memory: win 5 non-conference games against top 100 RPI opponents.  Just win, baby.

Future Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Arizona: 82
Buffalo: 161
UCLA: 168
Weber State: 187
UTEP: 209

Previous Non-Conference Opponents: RPI
Utah State: 26
Vermont: 38
St. Mary's: 55
South Florida: 86
Creighton: 142
Hawaii: 176
MVSU: 189
Fresno State: 199
Chicago State: 259

MWC Opponents: RPI
San Diego State: 9
UNLV: 13
New Mexico: 93
TCU: 120
Utah: 132
Air Force: 156
Colorado State: 246
Wyoming: 275