Games, games, games

Well, my wife is back, and very jet-lagged. That makes for a quiet, lazy Saturday of watching football. Sounds strangely similar to what I've been doing the past few weeks. Come to think of it, that's what we did before she left too. OK, let's see if her return has made me more accurate in my predictions. I didn't put these up, however, for the first time EVER, I had a perfect week of picks heading in to the weekend as I had Marshall, Buffalo, and Cincinnati all coming off as winners. I would like to point out that 2 of those 3 were "upsets" and I still got them. Now, the picks:

Northwestern beats Minnesota, 28-17. Minnesota has played two teams with winning records: Northern Illinois and Ohio State. They are 1-1. That'll be 1-2 after this weekend.
West Virginia over Connecticut, 35-20. Welcome back to the West Virginia offense. Bye-bye to the Big East having a ranked team.
CMU over Indiana, 31-17. Good win for the future MAC champion. The Chippewas are rolling.
Michigan over Purdue, 28-6. Turning point for Michigan? No, they still won't make a bowl game and momentum doesn't carry over 8 months into next season, but still, good win on the road for a team that has struggled mightily no matter where they played.
Tulsa over Arkansas, 42-21. For the second game in a row, Tulsa is held to under 50 points. What's wrong with them?
Wyoming over SDSU, 38-35. Why don't they just cancel this one?
Texas A&M over Colorado, 28-12. The Ags have been playing better and Colorado almost eked out a win last week over Missouri, 58-0. It was a nailbiter.
Notre Dame over Pittsburgh, 34-28. I am having a tough time figuring which of these two teams gets way too much credit. Both coaches have been praised more than they have earned.
Utah State over Hawaii, 28-24. Go Aggies. They almost pulled off the upset over Fresno State last week, this week, they get finally overcome that hurdle.
Oregon over Cal, 35-27. This game is for second place in the Pac 10. I think Oregon is the better TEAM in this matchup and steals one on the road.
Georgia Tech over Florida State, 17-14. I still don't buy into the Florida State hype. The Virginia Tech win was big, showing that they haven't just been winning by beating up on nobodies (though a lot of their wins are against inferior competition). However, Georgia Tech's defense is too good and their offense eats up too much clock for FSU to pull out a road W.
Iowa over Illinois, 31-23. Shonn Green is scary good (Happy Halloween). Iowa is playing good football right now. Their 3 losses are for a combined 9 points against opponents with a record of 18-6 (15-6 if you take out the games where they beat Iowa). The Juice needs a little help and the defense hasn't been able to provide it.
Boise State over New Mexico State, 38-10. Boise State has been the most complete non-BCS school this season. Their defense isn't as good as Utah's or TCU's (TCU and Utah both score points on defense where Boise State just forces teams into 3 and out). However, their offense has been more consistent moving the football than Utah's or TCU's throughout the season. And they've done it with a freshman QB at the helm.
USC over Washington, 49-7. Washington comes out fired up, until the opening kickoff...
South Carolina over Tennessee, 20-14. Is this a farewell tour for Phillip Fulmer? Probably, as he has "underperformed" for several seasons in a row, though if you ask me his teams have performed as good as they are, they are just overrated. This year they have beaten up on inferior competition but they have been beaten down by every decent team on the schedule.
Oklahoma over Nebraska, 58-27. OU's offense proves again it is light year's ahead of its defense. Is Bob Stoops still coaching? How does that happen at OU?
TCU over UNLV, 38-27. UNLV puts up a fight, but loses another heartbreaker. UNLV is playing much better this year, but it'll be another year before they can do more than just compete against the big 3 in the conference. TCU might have been looking ahead a litle bit but still comes away undefeated in MWC play heading in to the big game against Utah.

Big games of the weekend:
Florida over Georgia, 38-21. Georgia gave up 38 to LSU, Florida gave up 21. Coincidence that I picked that as the final score? Nope. It seems about right though, doesn't it?
BYU over Colorado State, 35-24. I saw something from BYU's offense last week that I have been looking for since mid-September: improvement. And they got everyone involved: Fui, Unga, Pitta (at least late), Collie, Reid, Chambers, George, and Hall running the ball. That was key in their first 3 games, but they got away from it after UCLA. Defensively, can the last two plays of the UNLV carry over into this game? No, but the defense will play better. Look for them to actually force a couple of punts this game and maybe even get a couple of turnovers. If CSU were better coached, they would take advantage of Brandon Howard, BYU's 5'9" cornerback, who is one of the worst in-air defenders I've seen in a while, even at BYU who has had some pretty bad one, with their stud WR Greer. But they aren't, most teams aren't. Plus, QB Farris is due for a bad game after several non-bad ones in a row. Maybe Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell can open things up with a solid running game. The problem is: they both run between the tackles, and that is the one place BYU's defense is not all that bad.
Texas Tech over Texas, 31-28. Guns up. I have often thought Tech was overrated, and I think they still are, but they have been waiting for this game a whole lot longer than Texas has and they do have some talent. Plus Tech actually has a pretty decent defense this year. I think Graham Harrell's legs will actually be the difference in this game. He has used them much better this season when teams drop back in coverage. The two backs that split time (Batch and Woods) are pretty darn good too. Crabtree is due for a BIG game. While his yards have been down, his ability to score has not been. While I believe Colt McCoy is one of the best QBs in the country and Texas is probably one of the best teams in the country, I think they fall from the ranks of the unbeaten this weekend in Lubbock in a freak sand storm, though it will come down to one or two plays at the end. I think McCoy just turns it over one time too many.
My other upset pick of the week: New Mexico over Utah, 28-23. Louie Sakoda can only carry them so far. Utah is leading the country in red zone FG's. That means they aren't punching it in when they get close. I think this might be the game where it finally costs them. New Mexico is disciplined on defense, tough as nails on offense, sound on special teams, and they have their backs against the wall when it comes to bowl eligibility. With Utah coming off of a bye where they have read a lot in the national media about how good they are, and with TCU next on the docket, I think they get beat. Last time at New Mexico, Utah had a two score lead in the fourth quarter and managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. While I don't think it will be quite as dramatic as that, I think their deficiencies on offense finally cost them. Looking ahead: if Utah loses this game, they beat TCU, if they win this game, they get beat by TCU. You heard it here first, Utah will lose sometime in the next week. I still believe their defense and special teams are among the 10 best in the country and they are certainly a top 15-20 team (just a few spots behind Boise State and TCU-but a couple spots ahead of BYU), but their offense is not nearly as good as advertised and is dragging their team down.