Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The Big Three

After following a couple of sites, sifting through some reader comments, I was a bit surprised to see how BYU fans, Boise State fans, and Utah fans all feel that their team is VASTLY superior to the other two. In some cases, it is flat out animosity. Each set of fans argue that THEIR team's resume is the most impressive so far. So, let's look at their resumes to this point, objectively, without red, blue, or orange goggles.

By the way, I am excited to get a chance to watch Boise State. They look pretty sharp. Kellen Moore looks smooth as silk and Ian Johnson has finally re-emerged somewhat.

Easiest game:
Each has played an FCS opponent at home. BYU played against the most challenging opponent. However, Boise State and Utah both played in-state teams, which adds to the difficulty of the game, if it can be called difficulty. Boise State's performance was the most dominant, though they did have the worst opponent. Both Boise State and BYU started the season with their FCS opponents. Utah wasted its homecoming on theirs. BSU won by 42, BYU by 24, and Utah by 16. By sheer margin of victory, BSU has to get the advantage. We'll call BYU and Utah a wash.

Road game vs. BCS opponent.
Utah gets props for opening up on the road at Michigan. Boise State gets props for beating a ranked team, who has never lost to a non-BCS opponent at home. BYU gets props for...well, they won the game, they get props for that, since it's been so long since they were able to win a game like this on the road. All three teams statistically dominated the opponent, though all three clung to victory by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin. Boise State's opponent was the toughest and the venue is arguably the most difficult to win at. The Big House may be bigger, but not many places are more intimidating than Autzen. BSU gets the advantage here too, Utah finishes second, and BYU brings up the rear.

Weaker Non-BCS team.
BYU hasn't played theirs yet, that's this Friday against Utah State, but it's tough to imagine it would be anything but a blowout. Utah dominated Utah State in a "road" game already. Boise State handled a decent Bowling Green team at home, 20-7. Bowling Green is obviously a higher quality program than Utah State, though it was at home. Utah turned the ball over 3 times against the lowly Aggies, though they did drop 58. On the face, beating BG is more impressive than a victory over USU, regardless of location or margin of victory. Again, BSU gets the advantage. We'll have to wait until Friday to name second place.

Conference game (or games in Utah's case).
Boise State's game isn't over, but, as of halftime, they have been fairly dominant against La Tech. BYU dominated Wyoming on the scoreboard and in turnover margin, though it was fairly even on how they moved the ball. BYU just managed to move the ball into the end zone on offense and defense. Utah had a rough first half against both Air Force and UNLV, and was tied with Air Force in the waning moments of the 4th quarter, despite dominating the game, line of scrimmage, stat-line, etc. Utah gave up 21 and 23 in those games. The shutout pushes this in favor of BYU. Utah gets the nod at 2, simply because UNLV and Air Force would be doing to La Tech the exact same thing that Boise State is.

Other OOC game:
BYU and Utah both have/had a Pac 10 team coming to visit them for their other OOC game. Boise State goes to Southern Mississippi. We all know how BYU handled their game against UCLA. 59-0 is impressive. After what UCLA managed against Tennessee, that looked impressive. It's lost some luster now, though. After what Oregon State did to USC, Utah definitely has an opportunity to make a statement in their game. I have a hard time believing that either Utah or BSU can make the kind of statement that BYU did. Advantage BYU. Again, we can't decide second place yet.

Ranking them in order on statistics:
Total Defense: Utah, BYU, Boise State
Scoring Defense: BYU, Boise State, Utah
Total Offense: BYU, Boise State, Utah
Scoring Offense: BYU, Utah, Boise State

Based on what Utah has accomplished thus far this season, I don't see how they could make the claim of being the best non-BCS team. It doesn't mean that they aren't, or couldn't be by the end of the season, it just means that they can't say, based on what has happened thus far on the field, that they are. They have an opportunity in prime time on Thursday to make the case, but, to this point, they haven't made the case, with fairly lackadaisical victories. However, sometimes you just need to find ways to win until your team gets rolling (but they've played 5 games, there shouldn't be early season mistakes still). Tomorrow can be a defining game for them.
BYU needs to beat a good team on the road, something they haven't done since Utah 2006. I think they have to do that to further establish their resume, and they will have several opportunities this season at TCU and at Utah. Their win over UCLA was awesome, even if UCLA is a bottom-feeder in the Pac 10, it's 59 to ZERO. That win may be more impressive than any that the other two have. The performance at Washington brings them down. The relatively poor offensive effort against Wyoming does as well.
Boise State doesn't exactly have an awesome resume, and it will only get worse until the end of November, but their few achievements are certainly better than Utah's and you could argue they are better than BYU's, and they just need to play a few games (tonight is only their 4th game of the season). Kellen Moore has been great but the running game needs some work.

Each team certainly has its positives. Utah is the most athletic team, hands down. BYU is the most well-coached and consistent team. Boise State is the flashiest, most exciting team to watch. All three of those things are necessary for a BCS buster.

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