Here's the rub on Utah State
Defense
They are aggressive and physical. They blitz a lot. They play a lot of in-your-face man-to-man coverage. They gang tackle and follow the flow. They play a 3-4, with three big DL and keep a rotation of 6-8 LBs so every year they bring back an experienced group. This year is no different. Really, this is the kind of D that BYU struggles with and has for many years. Part of that is intentional. Between 1996 and 2006, Utah was improving and setting up a defensive model that could do one of two things: beat BYU and allow them to compete in recruiting by getting the types of players they could realistically get. Enter Gary Andersen who brings it all together in time for the 2008 Utah Defense which is one of the best D's ever from a non-BCS team. The defense Gary Andersen and the Aggies employ is the D that was specifically designed to beat BYU.
Offense
Chuckie Keeton is a very good duel-threat QB. I do not give him the rave reviews that everyone does inside the state of Utah. He WILL be a great QB, but he's still learning and will grow into a phenomenal player next year (and would be a Heisman contender in 2014 if he played for a better team-which maybe Utah State can become, maybe not, we'll see). Kerwynn Williams is a great open field runner for the Aggies. Joe Hill is a reliable backup. But neither of those guys is Robert Turbin from last season! I believe the bigger problem is the lack of reliable WRs that can be consistent. There is experience, but Kerwynn Williams leads the team in both receptions and yards. Keeton does spread the ball around sufficiently with 4 guys averaging 3+ catches per game. He completes at a high percentage b/c it is very much based on the short passing game. The short passing game eliminates some of BYU's pressure packages and potentially exploits the defensive philosophies of Bronco's bend-but-don't-break D. However, BYU counters with LBs that are great in the open field and DBs that can get off blocks and make tackles. Realistically, BYU ultimately gains an advantage here: Utah State relies on the big play to score and not drives and BYU keeps everything in front of them and forces teams to drive down the field on them.
Where BYU Stands
Offense
The Utah State defense presents major challenges for BYU and Taysom Hill (and even more for Riley Nelson). I don't believe Ross Apo is tough enough to play in this game. I don't. He gets bumped off his routes too easily and he is going to get bumped a lot tonight. The ball needs to be spread around to be effective against Utah State, but BYU also needs to take advantage of one-on-one coverage situations on the outside with Cody Hoffman. They MUST go deep. I do worry about the RBs as they are going to see smaller (or no) holes, they are going to get hit hard, and they are going to see some adversity. I suspect we'll see a fumble or two out of that group tonight. They also need to get involved catching the ball out of the backfield more. Friel and Mahina are the guys that can have the biggest impact for BYU offensively, as they will end up in man-coverage against guys that should not be able to cover them one-on-one, particularly on play-action (if Doman remembers what that is...).
Defense
BYU doesn't need to do too much, though I would advise them to get a little more aggressive with Daniel Sorensen (like they did with Andrew Rich, bring him two yards closer to the line of scrimmage on multiple occasions tonight). I wouldn't blitz too often and I'd probably never bring more than 5 guys. USU runs a lot of short passes, screens, and draws which are plays designed to counter blitzes. Utah State won't go deep more than once or twice a game (maybe 2-3 times since this is BYU and Andersen loves to get aggressive/greedy in these games), so take away the short stuff. Stay home and tackle well. Williams and Keeton are both the kind of runners that can make big plays with ONE missed tackle. I also suspect we'll see some trickeration (reverses, double passes, etc.) from the Aggies. Again, the big key is that BYU needs to stay home and tackle well.
Prediction
I think BYU struggles tonight early. They are going to get popped and they are going to have to adjust. Quickly. If they dig too deep of a hole early, they might be in trouble. I think after two or three series, they do adjust. Then they can get in some kind of rhythm and sustain a few drives on O. They can force a few three and outs on D and potentially shut Utah State out in the second half. And ultimately, I have the Cougars winning the game with a closer margin than I had preseason: BYU 27, Utah State 17
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